Safra starts coverage of Light stock with BRL 4.20 target

Published on 10/06/2026 at 13:38 | Editorial responsibility: Rafael Müller, Editor-in-Chief AD HOC NEWS

Safra sets BRL 4.20 target on September 18, 2026. For Light stock this means BRL 566.0 million adjusted EBITDA in Q2 2026, up 82.30 percent.

Light, BRLIGTACNOR2, Illustration mit AI erstellt.

Light (ISIN BRLIGTACNOR2) received a neutral initiation from Banco Safra with a BRL 4.20 target for the end of 2026 on September 18, 2026. The report puts the companys next test in regulation, not only in balance-sheet repair.

Safra sees regulation as the key test

According to O Especialista on September 18, 2026, Safra expects the 2027 tariff review to recognize investment returns and improve the regulatory treatment of energy losses. The bank also expects energy volumes to remain stable in 2026 and 2027, with long-term annual growth of 2.60 percent.

Safra estimates a regulatory asset base of BRL 11.60 billion for the next tariff review and a regulatory weighted average cost of capital of 7.80 percent. Its base case implies distribution EBITDA of BRL 1.90 billion at the end of 2027, while hydroelectric generation currently contributes BRL 554.0 million of EBITDA.

Second-quarter figures show a reset

Light reported adjusted EBITDA of BRL 566.0 million in the second quarter of 2026, an increase of 82.30 percent from the prior-year quarter, according to Investing.com. Net debt declined from BRL 8.84 billion in the first quarter to BRL 7.30 billion in the second quarter, while the net debt to EBITDA covenant ratio improved from 3.66 times to 2.85 times.

The same second-quarter summary puts the net loss at BRL 252.18 million and notes that Light converted BRL 1.70 billion of mandatory debt into equity in July. That transaction reduced leverage but also added 523.0 million shares, creating a measurable dilution factor for the post-restructuring equity story.

Market value and next report

Light had a market capitalization of BRL 1.5 billion on October 6, 2026. Its 52-week range was BRL 2.41 to BRL 6.49, and the next earnings report is scheduled for November 12, 2026, according to Investing.com.

Debt relief meets operating risk

Light exited judicial recovery after the Rio de Janeiro court recognized the completion of the obligations under its restructuring plan on September 10, 2026, as reported by UOL. The company now combines lower leverage with a BRL 10.0 billion investment plan through 2030, but tariff decisions and energy losses remain central to the valuation debate.