Resilient Cleveland-Cliffs stock steadies with EBITDA outlook lift
Published on 09/01/2026 at 08:34 | Editorial responsibility: Rafael Müller, Editor-in-Chief AD HOC NEWS
Cleveland-Cliffs Inc. (US1858991011) is drawing investor attention on September 1, 2026 as Cleveland-Cliffs stock holds in the low-teens while management signals a stronger profitability outlook for the second half of the year.
EBITDA guidance points to a Q3 2026 inflection
Per a recent earnings-related update reported in the market press on August 31, 2026, the company indicated that adjusted EBITDA reached $381 million in the first six months of 2026, compared to a loss of $85 million in the same period of 2025, underscoring a clear swing back to positive operating performance. A sector-focused earnings article noted that Cleveland-Cliffs expects third-quarter 2026 adjusted EBITDA of $575 million, more than double its second-quarter figure, which would mark a pronounced quarter-on-quarter profit improvement if achieved.
The projected move from $381 million in adjusted EBITDA over the first half of 2026 to a targeted $575 million for Q3 2026 suggests that management sees demand and pricing conditions in its steel and iron ore business improving as the year progresses, alongside benefits from cost initiatives. While the guidance figure itself is not yet realized, the comparison against a prior-year loss of $85 million for the first half of 2025 frames how decisively the company is aiming to rebuild margins.
Latest earnings and consensus snapshot
Recent coverage of Cleveland-Cliffs' earnings history shows that the company reported a second-quarter loss per share but still modestly surpassed market expectations. In its most recent quarterly release on July 23, 2026, the mining and steel producer reported an earnings per share figure of -$0.20, slightly better than the consensus forecast of -$0.21, delivering an upside surprise of $0.01 per share for that period. An institutional-holding and earnings recap also highlighted that revenue for that quarter came in at $5.23 billion versus analyst expectations of $5.15 billion, representing a 5.9 percent increase compared with the same quarter a year earlier.
That same recap noted that the company posted a negative net margin of 4.56 percent and a negative return on equity of 13.37 percent for the quarter ended in July 2026, indicating that despite the top-line beat and year-over-year revenue growth, profitability remains under pressure. Analysts following the name collectively expect a modest full-year loss, with the consensus pointing toward an earnings per share figure of -0.11 for the current fiscal year, signaling that the anticipated Q3 2026 EBITDA lift is viewed as part of a gradual normalization rather than a full-year earnings recovery.
Across recent data compilations, Cleveland-Cliffs currently carries an average rating classified as Hold, with a consensus twelve-month price target in the area of $11.96 per share according to that same earnings and valuation overview. This implies that, at current trading levels, the stock is viewed by many analysts as roughly fairly valued rather than deeply discounted, and that a more sustained improvement in margins and cash flow would be required to change the recommendation profile meaningfully.
Market performance and valuation context
On the market side, a live stock-analysis page dated September 1, 2026 shows Cleveland-Cliffs stock quoted at $11.61 as of August 28, 2026, with a small daily change of -0.01 dollars, or -0.09 percent, at 3:58 p.m. Eastern time for that most recent completed session. The NYSE quote and analysis overview indicates that shares began 2026 trading at $13.30 on January 1, 2026 and have declined to $11.61 by late August 2026, a drop of 12.7 percent year-to-date. That quantified move places the stock below its early-year level even as revenue trends have stabilized.
The same overview notes that Cleveland-Cliffs' recent quarterly revenue rose 5.9 percent compared with the year-ago quarter, while earnings per share improved from -$0.50 in the prior-year second quarter to -$0.20 in the latest period, a swing of $0.30 per share toward breakeven. Taken together, the combination of a mid-single-digit top-line increase and a significantly reduced loss per share suggests that operations are recovering, but the market has yet to reward the stock with a higher price, leaving valuation tied to expectations for the Q3 2026 EBITDA inflection.
Short-term forecasts compiled on another dedicated target-price page show an average analyst price target of $8.55 for Cleveland-Cliffs, with individual estimates ranging from $3.91 to $14.00 per share and the average target implying a 3.06 percent downside from a last closing price reference of $8.82 on that site. That target and estimate grid lists a current-quarter earnings per share estimate of -0.65, underlining that many analysts still expect a near-term loss despite the company’s stronger EBITDA guidance.
Steel operations and product focus
Cleveland-Cliffs Inc. operates as a vertically integrated steel and mining company, supplying flat-rolled steel products and iron ore pellets to automotive, construction, and industrial customers primarily in the United States. The company’s operations span upstream mining and pelletizing through to downstream steel production, allowing it to control key inputs such as ore and metallurgical coal for its blast furnaces and electric arc furnaces.
A central product in the Cleveland-Cliffs portfolio is hot-rolled steel used by North American automakers and appliance manufacturers, where customer contracts and spot sales are influenced by benchmark steel prices, capacity utilization, and trade policies affecting imported steel. The projected step-up in adjusted EBITDA for the third quarter of 2026 reflects management’s belief that demand and pricing for these core steel products will support better margins, especially as the company continues to optimize its production footprint and pursue efficiency investments at its mills.
Stock level and investor takeaway
As of August 28, 2026, Cleveland-Cliffs stock closed at $11.61 on the New York Stock Exchange, with the quote recorded at 3:58 p.m. Eastern time according to the NYSE-focused analysis page. That level leaves the shares down 12.7 percent year-to-date from the opening price of $13.30 on January 1, 2026, even as quarterly revenue has grown 5.9 percent and the loss per share has narrowed from -$0.50 to -$0.20 over the latest reported quarter.
For investors, the key near-term question is whether the company can deliver on its Q3 2026 adjusted EBITDA guidance of $575 million and translate improving operating metrics into sustained earnings and cash flow, which would form the basis for a rerating of Cleveland-Cliffs stock over time.
Fact box
Company: Cleveland-Cliffs Inc.
ISIN: US1858991011
Ticker: CLF
Exchange: NYSE
Price (as of August 28, 2026, 3:58 p.m. ET): $11.61 USD
Market cap: not specified in cited sources
Sector / Industry: Materials / Steel
Index membership: not specified in cited sources
