Morgan Stanley cuts target for Peloton stock to USD 4.50

Published on 10/05/2026 at 04:20 | Editorial responsibility: Rafael Müller, Editor-in-Chief AD HOC NEWS

Peloton launches Tread Flex on September 22, 2026. Peloton stock is valued at USD 2.1 billion on October 2, 2026, with a USD 3.65 52-week low.

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Morgan Stanley cut its Peloton price target from USD 5.00 to USD 4.50 and downgraded the stock from Equal Weight to Underweight on September 8, 2026, according to MarketBeat. The move puts subscriber trends and the durability of Peloton's profit recovery at the center of the investment case.

Analyst target falls to USD 4.50

MarketBeat reported on October 1, 2026, that 13 analysts held a consensus rating of Hold, including five Buy, six Hold and two Sell recommendations. The average 12-month target stood at USD 7.95, leaving a wide gap between the published consensus and Morgan Stanley's USD 4.50 target.

The split in views is material. UBS kept a Buy rating while cutting its target from USD 11.00 to USD 10.00 on September 8, 2026, whereas Morgan Stanley cited structural pressure on Peloton's subscriber base, as Yahoo Finance reported.

Profit meets a shrinking base

Peloton's fiscal 2026 results showed a sharper financial improvement than the subscriber trend. The company generated USD 63.2 million of net income in fiscal 2026, compared with a USD 118.9 million loss in fiscal 2025, while operating margin reached 7.00 percent, according to the standardized annual financial statements.

In the fourth quarter of fiscal 2026, revenue reached USD 608.00 million and adjusted EBITDA was USD 142.00 million, equal to 23.00 percent of revenue. Ending paid connected fitness subscriptions were 2.553 million, while net churn rose to 2.20 percent, an increase of 0.37 percentage points year over year, according to the Yahoo Finance transcript.

Fiscal 2027 outlook tests recovery

Management's fiscal 2027 revenue outlook of USD 2.30 billion to USD 2.40 billion implies a 3.90 percent decline at the midpoint from fiscal 2026. That contraction contrasts with the prior year's return to profitability and makes subscription retention a key counterweight to the improved cost structure.

Peloton also set a minimum fiscal 2027 adjusted EBITDA target of USD 350.00 million. The target is more than twice the fourth-quarter adjusted EBITDA figure on an annualized quarter comparison, but the subscription base and churn figures show why analysts remain divided.

Product expansion adds a second test

Peloton announced the Tread Flex treadmill and new AI-powered coaching features on September 22, 2026. The product launch, described on the company's Peloton Interactive investor relations page, expands the hardware range while the financial plan depends increasingly on recurring subscription revenue.

Prior close stands at EUR 4.38

Lang & Schwarz lists a prior close of EUR 4.38 for October 2, 2026. Peloton's primary listing is NASDAQ, where the October 2, 2026 market value was USD 2.1 billion and the 52-week range was USD 3.65 to USD 8.80.