Marcopolo stock faces a cautious XP outlook after target reset

Published on 10/07/2026 at 03:12 | Editorial responsibility: Rafael Müller, Editor-in-Chief AD HOC NEWS

Marcopolo stock stood at BRL 4.68 on October 5, 2026, while its 52-week range reached BRL 8.85. Second-quarter revenue rose 3 percent, but net income fell 15.5 percent.

Marcopolo, BRPOMOACNPR7, Illustration mit AI erstellt.

Marcopolo stock (ISIN BRPOMOACNPR7) closed at BRL 4.68 on the B3 on October 5, 2026, against a 52-week high of BRL 8.85 and a low of BRL 4.05. The immediate investment debate centers on weaker profitability after XP moved its rating to Neutral and introduced a BRL 5.00 target for the end of 2027.

XP turns more cautious

According to XP Investimentos on September 16, 2026, the recommendation was cut to Neutral and the firm introduced a BRL 5.00 price target for the end of 2027. That target lies 6.8 percent above the BRL 4.68 closing price, leaving a modest gap between the current quotation and the analyst scenario.

XP's revised base case projects a 14.9 percent EBITDA margin and BRL 950 million in net income for 2027, with the profit estimate 19 percent below consensus. The report identifies weaker production momentum, lower operating leverage and pressure from international markets as reasons for the more cautious view.

Revenue grows as profit softens

Marcopolo's second-quarter figures show why volume alone has not resolved the valuation debate. As A Revista reported on October 1, 2026, second-quarter revenue reached BRL 2.37 billion, up 3 percent from the prior-year quarter, while net income fell 15.5 percent to BRL 271.2 million.

Global production increased 8 percent to 4,105 units in the quarter, while Brazilian production rose 19.4 percent. The domestic market share for bus bodies reached 48.3 percent from 47.7 percent, but EBITDA was BRL 338.6 million and the EBITDA margin was 14.3 percent.

For the first half of 2026, revenue totaled BRL 4.02 billion, 1.2 percent higher than in the comparable period. Brazilian exports increased 5.8 percent to BRL 424.5 million, showing that sales growth continued even as the profit mix became less favorable.

Stock remains below yearly high

The B3 quotation gives Marcopolo a market capitalization of BRL 5.3 billion as of October 5, 2026. The stock was up 2.2 percent over one month but down 21.6 percent for the year, placing the BRL 4.68 close 47.1 percent below the 52-week high.

The next reported checkpoint is the third-quarter 2026 result, scheduled for November 3, 2026, according to A Revista. The report will show whether higher production can translate into improved margins and cash generation.

BRL 4.68 close keeps pressure visible

Marcopolo stock closed at BRL 4.68 on the B3 on October 5, 2026. Its BRL 5.3 billion market capitalization and 47.1 percent distance from the 52-week high frame the cautious analyst view against still-growing revenue.