Kiwoom recommends hold for Sampoerna stock at IDR 660 target

Published on 10/01/2026 at 23:02 | Editorial responsibility: Rafael Müller, Editor-in-Chief AD HOC NEWS

First-half sales reached IDR 56.5 trillion and profit IDR 4.2 trillion. For Sampoerna stock, smoke-free sales reached IDR 1.23 trillion.

Sampoerna, ID1000070105, Illustration mit AI erstellt.

Kiwoom Sekuritas Indonesia recommended a hold rating for Sampoerna stock and set a target of IDR 660, according to Kontan on September 25, 2026. The call came as regulatory scrutiny of electronic cigarettes added a specific risk to the company's smoke-free expansion.

Sales grow while volume declines

PT Hanjaya Mandala Sampoerna Tbk reported IDR 56.5 trillion in net sales and IDR 4.2 trillion in net profit for the first half of 2026, according to Investor.id on September 18, 2026. Sales increased 2.39 percent year over year, while volume declined 1.30 percent, showing that pricing helped offset weaker unit demand.

The pressure was concentrated in the hand-rolled cigarette segment, where sales fell 13.00 percent from the same period of 2025. Investor.id also reported a 29.60 percent market share for the first half of 2026, keeping HMSP positioned as Indonesia's tobacco-industry leader.

Smoke-free remains a small growth engine

Smoke-free products generated IDR 1.23 trillion in sales in the first half of 2026, up from IDR 1.13 trillion in the first half of 2025, according to Kontan. Its share of total sales rose from 2.05 percent to 2.18 percent, so the segment remains financially contained even as policy risk increases.

Kontan reported that MNC Sekuritas analyst Catherine Florencia viewed the possible electronic-cigarette restrictions as an additional regulatory risk, while Kiwoom analyst Abdul Azis Setyo Wibowo said the overall effect would depend on the segment's contribution. The same report said the IDR 660 target accompanied the hold recommendation.

Margins remain the key test

Indo Premier analysts estimated that a 1.00 percent increase in average selling prices for machine-made kretek cigarettes could lift HMSP's fiscal 2027 profit by 7.50 percent, according to IDXChannel on September 28, 2026. The analysis also projected 23.00 percent fiscal 2026 profit growth and a 10.70 percent fiscal 2027 dividend yield for HMSP.

Sampoerna's official governance page identifies Ivan Cahyadi as president director, placing management execution alongside pricing and volume as the main operating variables for the next reported period.