Goosehead Insurance stock falls after valuation signal from GuruFocus

Published on 09/17/2026 at 18:56 | Editorial responsibility: Rafael Müller, Editor-in-Chief AD HOC NEWS

Goosehead Insurance stock traded at USD 56.47 on September 16, 2026, about 33.3% below a GF Value estimate of USD 84.69. Recent fundamentals and analyst targets frame the risk-reward profile for investors.

GSHD, US38267D1090, Illustration mit AI erstellt.

Goosehead Insurance Inc. stock (ISIN US38267D1090) was quoted at USD 56.47 on Nasdaq on September 16, 2026, after a 4.9% decline from the prior close, putting the shares well below one prominent fair value estimate and drawing investor attention to the valuation gap.

Valuation gap highlighted by GuruFocus

According to GuruFocus on September 16, 2026, Goosehead Insurance stock fell 4.9% to USD 56.47, a level roughly 33.3 percent below the service's GF Value estimate of USD 84.69, suggesting a notable discount to its intrinsic value model.

That spread between the market price of USD 56.47 and the GF Value estimate of USD 84.69 implies that, in this framework, the shares trade at about one third below the assessed fair value, which for investors can be a signal to scrutinize whether the discount reflects fundamental risks or market mispricing.

Fundamental snapshot and growth expectations

A recent fundamental overview from Gainseekers as of September 17, 2026, cites a trailing earnings per share of USD 1.25 and a price-to-earnings ratio of 28.15, indicating that the market is valuing Goosehead Insurance at a little more than twenty-eight times its recent earnings.

The same analysis reports a forward price-to-earnings ratio of 6.29 and a next year EPS growth estimate to USD 5.60, which implies a sharp increase in profitability expectations compared with the current EPS of USD 1.25 and, if achieved, would compress the earnings multiple significantly.

In revenue terms, Gainseekers lists a next year revenue growth estimate to USD 427.32 million, reinforcing the picture of a company where the consensus anticipates meaningful top-line expansion alongside the projected jump in earnings.

Cash flow, returns and 52-week range

From a cash flow perspective, the Gainseekers overview points to a free cash flow yield of 7.12 percent and an EV to free cash flow multiple of 17.72, suggesting that Goosehead Insurance is generating cash flows that, relative to its enterprise value, provide a mid-teens multiple and a high single-digit yield for investors tracking cash-based metrics.

The same data set notes a return on equity of negative 30.35 percent, highlighting that despite expectations for higher earnings, recent profitability relative to shareholder equity has been weak, a risk factor that investors weighing the valuation discount should keep in mind.

Market-wise, Gainseekers cites a market capitalization of about USD 1.34 billion and shows the stock's distance to its 52-week high at 220.75 percent and distance to its 52-week low at 4.40 percent, indicating that Goosehead Insurance shares currently trade close to the lower end of their one-year range while being far below their peak levels.

Analyst consensus and technical context

According to the same Gainseekers fundamental summary dated September 17, 2026, analyst consensus on Goosehead Insurance stock is categorized as Buy, with an average analyst price target of USD 66.00, which stands around USD 9.53 above the USD 56.47 price level highlighted by GuruFocus.

For technical orientation, Gainseekers lists a 50-day simple moving average at USD 42.54 and a 200-day simple moving average at USD 62.80, meaning the current price of USD 56.47 is above the shorter-term average but still below the longer-term average, a configuration that often points to a recovery from recent lows that has not yet fully reversed the longer-term downtrend.

The GF score framework referenced by GuruFocus assigns Goosehead Insurance an overall GF Score of 84 in its evaluation, and while that number is proprietary, it supports the narrative that, on several quantitative dimensions, the company scores well even as the market price lags the GF Value estimate.

Stock price level and investor takeaway

As of September 16, 2026, Goosehead Insurance stock traded at USD 56.47 on Nasdaq after falling 4.9 percent in that session, with the move leaving the shares about 33.3 percent below the GF Value estimate of USD 84.69 cited by GuruFocus and modestly under the USD 66.00 average analyst target highlighted by Gainseekers.