Erdemir stock: Stronger nine-month results meet higher coal costs
Published on 10/30/2026 at 01:03 | Editorial responsibility: Rafael Müller, Editor-in-Chief AD HOC NEWSResults improve, risks remain
- Erdemir reported stronger profitability for the first nine months of 2026, supported by domestic demand and improved capacity utilization.
- Management maintained its full-year EBITDA-per-ton guidance despite expecting higher coal costs and weaker fourth-quarter profitability.
- A one-off inventory adjustment supported the reported third-quarter EBITDA-per-ton figure and will not recur.
Erdemir reported stronger profitability for the first nine months of 2026, while warning that higher coking coal prices and rising working capital could weigh on the final quarter. Investing.com reported the figures and management comments on October 23, 2026, following the company’s third-quarter results presentation on October 22.
The Turkish steelmaker generated USD 4.3 billion in revenue, USD 490 million in EBITDA and USD 245 million in net profit during the first nine months. Sales reached 6.4 million tons, while crude steel capacity utilization rose to 96% in the third quarter. Domestic demand remained central to the performance, accounting for 84% of revenue.
Profitability improved through September
Management said EBITDA per ton reached USD 100 in the third quarter, marking the seventh consecutive quarter of improvement from the low point in late 2024. The company maintained its full-year 2026 EBITDA-per-ton guidance of USD 75 to USD 85, although it expects the fourth-quarter figure to decline.
The reported third-quarter profitability needs to be read with care. Management said a one-off net realizable value adjustment related to raw-material inventories at mining subsidiaries affected the period. The adjustment was not part of recurring steel operations and is not expected to repeat in the fourth quarter.
Coal prices create near-term pressure
Erdemir expects higher coking coal prices to raise costs because its raw-material pricing has a four-month lag. Management also expects working capital to increase as inventory values rise. Together with accelerated investment spending, that could push free cash flow into negative territory in the fourth quarter.
Capital expenditure was USD 315 million in the first nine months, and full-year spending is expected to reach approximately USD 600 million. The company said the increase will be driven in part by investments in a solar power plant under its net-zero roadmap.
Order visibility remains limited
For 2027, management described the initial outlook as positive but cautioned that visibility remains limited. The order book covers about two and a half months, and sales prices were described as rising, while firm full-year forecasts were not provided.
Erdemir at a glance
- Company: Eregli Demir ve Celik Fabrikalari T.A.S. (Erdemir)
- Ticker: EREGL
- Reporting period: First nine months of 2026
- Results date: October 22, 2026
- Revenue: USD 4.3 billion
- EBITDA: USD 490 million
- Net profit: USD 245 million
For the broader market context, investors can follow the BIST 100 and its exposure to Turkish equities.
The results point to a recovery in Erdemir’s operating performance, but the outlook remains sensitive to raw-material costs, domestic demand and export conditions. Investing.com reported that management continues to see the full-year margin target as achievable despite the expected fourth-quarter pressure.
