Cogna stock faces a lower target after BBI cuts its forecast

Published on 10/01/2026 at 06:17 | Editorial responsibility: Rafael Müller, Editor-in-Chief AD HOC NEWS

Cogna stock faces a BRL 3.10 target after Bradesco BBI cut its 2027 forecast on September 24, 2026. Revenue reached BRL 7.8 billion through June.

Cogna, BRCOGNACNOR2, Illustration mit AI erstellt.

Cogna (ISIN BRCOGNACNOR2) reported BRL 7.8 billion in revenue and BRL 2.5 billion in adjusted EBITDA for the 12 months through June 2026, according to Valor International. The figures give investors a clear operating baseline as competition in Brazilian higher education intensifies.

Bradesco BBI cuts its target

On September 24, 2026, Bradesco BBI downgraded Cogna from Buy to Neutral and reduced its year-end 2027 price target from BRL 3.80 to BRL 3.10, as reported by El Fondo. The revised target represents a 18.42 percent reduction from the previous target, a concrete change in the bank's valuation framework.

The same assessment cut Bradesco BBI's 2027 net income forecast for Cogna by 18 percent and placed the estimate 13 percent below market consensus. The bank linked the revision to weaker student intake trends, regulatory changes requiring more in-person classes, and pressure on Kroton's revenue and margins in the second half of 2026.

Scale meets tougher competition

Cogna's BRL 7.8 billion revenue and BRL 2.5 billion adjusted EBITDA were measured against a combined Afya and Yduqs business with BRL 9.2 billion of revenue and BRL 3.6 billion of adjusted EBITDA, Valor International reported on September 25, 2026. That comparison puts Cogna at 84.78 percent of the combined company's revenue and 69.44 percent of its adjusted EBITDA, while also showing why scale and execution remain central to the sector debate.

The competitive backdrop matters because the combined company is expected to capture BRL 2.0 billion in synergies, with 80 percent targeted within three years, according to the same report. Cogna's reported BRL 662 million of free cash flow provides a measurable financial counterweight, although the figures show a smaller cash-generation base than the combined group.

Cogna market value on October 1

Cogna had a market capitalization of BRL 4.6 billion on October 1, 2026. On B3, the stock last closed at BRL 2.11 on September 28, 2026, giving the valuation debate a dated trading reference alongside the revised BRL 3.10 target.