Bank of America reiterates underperform on Sao Martinho stock

Published on 10/02/2026 at 03:19 | Editorial responsibility: Rafael Müller, Editor-in-Chief AD HOC NEWS

Bank of America keeps its negative view on Sao Martinho. Sao Martinho stock has a BRL 20.74 average target and 16.91 percent upside.

Sao Martinho, BRSMTOACNOR3, Illustration mit AI erstellt.

Sao Martinho (BRSMTOACNOR3) remains under pressure from currency assumptions even as sugar and grain prices improve. In a report dated September 11, 2026, Money Times reported that Bank of America reiterated an underperform rating on Sao Martinho.

Currency drives the negative view

Bank of America considers the exchange rate the key variable for earnings revisions. Its base case uses BRL 5 per dollar, which limits the near-term effect of stronger agricultural commodities on the company's projections.

The bank's scenario analysis adds a concrete counterpoint. Higher market prices for grains and sugar would lift Sao Martinho's EBITDA by 10.00 percent versus the bank's estimates, while a BRL 6 exchange rate would raise EBITDA by 40.00 percent under the stated assumptions.

Quarterly figures show the pressure

Investing.com lists revenue of BRL 1,527.99 million and net income of BRL 38.15 million for Sao Martinho's latest reported quarter. Revenue declined from BRL 2,243.66 million in the previous quarter, while net income decreased from BRL 172.85 million, making the sequential comparison the central operating warning.

The same summary lists an average 12-month analyst target of BRL 20.74 and 16.91 percent upside, with 2 Buy, 7 Hold and 1 Sell ratings among 10 analysts. The neutral consensus contrasts with Bank of America's underperform stance and leaves the currency outlook as the key point of disagreement.

Market value and operating profile

Sao Martinho was valued at BRL 5.9 billion on October 2, 2026, according to the latest market snapshot. Its 52-week range was BRL 12.91 to BRL 21.70, placing the company in a wide trading band while investors weigh commodity support against currency sensitivity.

Sao Martinho describes itself as one of the largest ethanol and sugar producers and lists results for the second quarter of 2026 among its investor-relations materials, alongside production and capital-expenditure guidance for the 2026/27 crop year, Sao Martinho reports.

Stock remains tied to currency

The latest market quote was BRL 18.37 on B3 on September 30, 2026. The valuation leaves the stock below the average analyst target, while Bank of America's scenario shows that a weaker real would have a larger earnings effect than commodity prices alone.