VIX at 20.51 as election results set the U.S. session tone
Published on 11/04/2026 at 13:04 | Editorial responsibility: Rafael Müller, Editor-in-Chief AD HOC NEWSVIX enters a high-risk session
- The VIX closed at 20.51 on November 3, down 3.03% but still above the 20-point level.
- Election results lifted overnight volatility pricing, with the November VIX future rising to 21.10 according to Saxo.
- ADP employment data, the Treasury refunding announcement and the ISM services index are due during the U.S. session.
The VIX closed at 20.51 on Tuesday, November 3, falling 3.03% from the previous session but remaining above the 20-point level that often signals heightened market sensitivity. In its November 3 market commentary, Cboe described the index as a yellow warning signal while investors awaited the U.S. election result.
Election risk moves to the next session
The cash-market close came before the full election outcome was reflected in trading. According to Saxo, Democrats took both chambers of Congress, and the November VIX future rose to 21.10 overnight, above the December contract at 20.22. That move refers to volatility futures rather than the VIX spot index, but it indicates that traders assigned greater near-term risk after the result.
The volatility curve also pointed to concentrated event risk. Saxo reported that one-day volatility rose 29.72% to 23.22, while the VIX eased and longer-dated volatility measures declined. This configuration suggests that protection was being priced more aggressively for the immediate post-election session than for a prolonged period of market stress.
Economic data remains in focus
The first U.S. session after the vote also brings several scheduled catalysts. Saxo lists ADP employment data at 09:15 Eastern Time, the Treasury's quarterly refunding announcement at 09:30 Eastern Time and the October ISM services index at 11:00 Eastern Time. The Bank of England decision on Thursday and U.S. payrolls on Friday add further event risk later in the week.
For investors, the key question is whether the elevated short-dated premium persists once the election result has been absorbed. A VIX level above 20 signals continued sensitivity, but it does not by itself establish the direction of stocks or guarantee a sustained volatility increase. The VIX measures expected S&P 500 volatility rather than realized market performance.
Further VIX coverage is available on the VIX topic page.
