Walmart stock edges higher as analysts reaffirm upside after tariff refund boost

Published on 09/11/2026 at 15:27 | Editorial responsibility: Rafael Müller, Editor-in-Chief AD HOC NEWS

Walmart stock trades around USD 105 to 106 as of September 11, 2026, after Q2 2026 results showed adjusted operating income up 17.4 percent, helped by a USD 2.9 billion tariff refund. Analysts such as DA Davidson still see upside with price targets near USD 132 and a consensus around USD 131.88.

Extreme Makrofotografie gestapelter bunter Einzelhandelsverpackungen mit flacher Schärfentiefe und leuchtenden Farben — Walmart US9311421039 in extremer Makroaufnahme von gestapelten bunten Einzelhandelsverpackungen mit flacher Schärfentiefe, Illustration mit AI erstellt.

Walmart Inc. stock (ISIN US9311421039) is trading around USD 105 to 106 on Nasdaq as of September 11, 2026, after a three-month slide of about 11 percent since early June that intensified following the retailer’s second-quarter 2026 earnings release on August 20, 2026.

Q2 2026 earnings show margin boost from tariff refunds

According to TIKR on September 10, 2026, Walmart reported its Q2 2026 results on August 20, 2026, with adjusted operating income up 17.4 percent year over year in the quarter.

As TIKR reports, roughly 750 basis points of that adjusted operating income growth in Q2 2026 came from a one-time benefit tied to receiving about USD 2.9 billion in tariff refunds, which management plans to reinvest into price cuts.

According to TIKR, Walmart guided Q3 2026 operating income growth to just 2 percent to 4 percent on a constant currency basis, inclusive of planned investment of the tariff refunds, signaling a significant deceleration versus the 17.4 percent growth rate in Q2 2026.

Analysts reaffirm Buy ratings despite valuation debate

Analyst sentiment toward Walmart stock remains broadly positive even after the post-earnings pullback and margin normalization guidance.

As MarketBeat reported on September 10, 2026, DA Davidson reaffirmed its Buy rating on Walmart and set a price target of USD 132.00, implying about 24.5 percent upside from a recent share price of USD 106.03.

According to Investing.com on September 10, 2026, DA Davidson reiterated its Buy rating and USD 132.00 price target after a visit to a Walmart fashion pop-up in New York City, with the target suggesting roughly 24 percent upside from a price of USD 106.61 at that time.

Based on data cited by MarketBeat, Walmart currently holds a consensus rating of Moderate Buy with an average analyst price target of USD 131.88, implying a mid-20 percent upside from the low-USD-100s trading range.

According to TIKR, the stock is covered by 27 Buy ratings, 10 Outperform recommendations, 5 Hold ratings, 1 Underperform and 1 Sell, reflecting a split but still bullish overall stance.

Valuation, however, is a point of debate. According to GuruFocus on September 10, 2026, Walmart’s intrinsic GF Value stands at USD 103.50 per share, while the stock trades at about USD 105.96, suggesting the shares are approximately 2.4 percent above that fair value estimate.

Similarly, GuruFocus notes that Walmart is about 2.3 percent overvalued versus its GF Value of USD 103.50 given a current price of roughly USD 105.83, while BTIG maintains a Buy rating with a price target of USD 140.00.

Tariff-fueled price competition weighs on shares

The key risk currently weighing on Walmart stock is how management plans to use the tariff refunds to intensify price competition, potentially pressuring margins beyond Q2 2026.

According to TIKR, about USD 2.9 billion of tariff refunds will be plowed into price cuts, creating a tariff-fueled price war that has contributed to the stock being down 11 percent since early June 2026.

As TIKR highlights, management guided Q3 2026 operating income growth to only 2 percent to 4 percent inclusive of the planned tariff refund reinvestment, down sharply from the 17.4 percent growth recorded in Q2 2026, emphasizing the near-term margin headwind for investors.

Walmart’s year-to-date share performance reflects these concerns. According to Yahoo Finance, the stock is down about 4.35 percent year to date as of September 11, 2026, while the S&P 500 index is up roughly 10.92 percent over the same period.

Next earnings date and current price levels

Looking ahead, investors already have a date for the next set of numbers. According to The Wall Street Journal, Walmart is scheduled to report its Q3 2026 earnings on November 19, 2026.

On the market side, recent quotes show Walmart trading slightly above USD 105 on Nasdaq. Per data cited by MarketBeat on September 11, 2026, shares of Walmart stock opened at USD 105.73 on that date.

According to Robinhood as of September 11, 2026, Walmart’s stock price stood at USD 105.82, with a market capitalization of about USD 839.07 billion and trading volume of roughly 17.17 million shares versus an average volume of 23.21 million shares.

Per Yahoo Finance on September 11, 2026, Walmart shares were quoted at about USD 105.92 during the session, illustrating how the price has been oscillating near the USD 106 level in recent trading days.