Volkswagen AG stock falls as Kepler cuts rating after profit warning

Published on 09/21/2026 at 16:39 | Editorial responsibility: Rafael Müller, Editor-in-Chief AD HOC NEWS

Volkswagen AG stock trades around EUR 75 on Xetra on September 21, 2026 after a recent profit warning and a rating cut to Hold by Kepler Cheuvreux. Analysts like Jefferies still see upside with a EUR 120 price target as of September 21, 2026.

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Volkswagen AG stock (ISIN DE0007664039) was trading near EUR 75 on Xetra on September 21, 2026, roughly 1 percent below the last close of EUR 76.52 from September 18, 2026 and around 26 percent lower than the level at the start of the year, according to recent market data.

Profit warning and revised 2026 outlook weigh on shares

The central catalyst for investors in Volkswagen AG stock this week is a recent profit warning that materially changed the 2026 outlook for the Wolfsburg-based carmaker. As Investing.com reported on September 21, 2026, Volkswagen now expects 2026 revenue of about EUR 315.0 billion, which is roughly 2 percent lower than the prior year and marks a downgrade from the previous guidance of flat to a 3 percent decline.

According to the same report from Investing.com, the company now forecasts an operating margin of up to 1 percent for 2026, sharply reduced from the earlier target range of 4.0 to 5.5 percent. The downgrade follows about EUR 10 billion in impairments on Volkswagen's stake in Porsche, which is weighing on earnings visibility across the group.

Kepler cuts rating while other analysts stay positive

The profit warning triggered a notable shift in analyst sentiment. As Investing.com reported on September 21, 2026, Kepler Cheuvreux downgraded Volkswagen from Buy to Hold and lowered its price target from EUR 92 to EUR 80, citing lower earnings visibility and reduced dividend flows across the group. The cut implies a reduction of EUR 12 in the target and leaves only limited upside versus the current share price.

In contrast, several other houses continue to see significant potential in Volkswagen AG stock despite the near-term pressure. According to an analyst overview on finanzen.ch dated September 21, 2026, Jefferies & Company Inc. keeps Volkswagen at Buy with a price target of EUR 120, while Deutsche Bank Research reiterates a Buy rating with a target of EUR 115. With the stock quoted around EUR 75, the Jefferies target implies upside of more than 50 percent if the company can stabilize margins and deliver on its revised strategy.

Recent trading and index context

The market reaction to the weaker guidance and rating changes has been visible in the short-term chart. As a technical review on finanzen.at indicated on September 21, 2026, Volkswagen preference shares were down about 0.6 percent intraday to EUR 76.06 on Xetra around mid-morning. A separate Marketscreener overview shows the last close on Xetra at EUR 76.52 on September 18, 2026, with a 5-day performance of roughly minus 5.6 percent and a year-to-date decline of more than 26 percent, underlining the sustained pressure on the stock.

A broader index context adds another dimension for long-term investors. In a note discussing index changes, MarketScreener highlighted on September 21, 2026 that Volkswagen is no longer part of the Euro Stoxx 50 following recent turbulence, with the stock trading around EUR 75.96 in off-hours and the market capitalization at approximately EUR 43.87 billion as of mid-September 2026.

Stock level and valuation signal

For retail investors, the key near-term question is how the revised guidance and mixed analyst views translate into the valuation of Volkswagen AG stock. With the Xetra price around EUR 75 to EUR 76 as of September 21, 2026 versus the Kepler Cheuvreux target of EUR 80 and the higher Jefferies and Deutsche Bank targets above EUR 115, the stock now trades well below the more optimistic scenarios but closer to the cautious Hold view.