Vale stock holds 2026 guidance as Q3 EBITDA falls 20 percent
Published on 11/05/2026 at 14:18 | Editorial responsibility: Rafael Müller, Editor-in-Chief AD HOC NEWSVale balances iron ore weakness
- Third-quarter pro forma EBITDA fell 20 percent as lower iron ore prices and higher external costs pressured profitability.
- Vale reaffirmed its 2026 production guidance, with copper and nickel expected in the upper half of their ranges.
- Record Salobo output and stronger nickel sales partly offset weaker iron ore operations.
Vale's third-quarter results showed a sharp squeeze on iron ore profitability, while its base-metals portfolio and unchanged production outlook offered support. The company released the results on October 29, reporting lower iron ore prices, higher costs and weaker quarterly earnings.
Pro forma EBITDA reached US$3.5 billion in the third quarter, down 20 percent from a year earlier and 14 percent from the previous quarter. Vale attributed the decline mainly to lower realized iron ore fines prices, the appreciation of the Brazilian real and higher bunker costs. The average realized iron ore fines price was US$85.1 per tonne, down 10 percent year over year and quarter over quarter.
Iron ore pressure tests guidance
Iron ore production fell 6 percent year over year, although sales increased 0.3 percent to 86.3 million tonnes. Vale linked the lower output to reduced run-of-mine availability at Serra Norte. The company said the resumption of Fábrica and Viga, greater access to hematite ore and continued performance at S11D should support higher production in the fourth quarter.
Vale reaffirmed its 2026 iron ore production guidance of 335 million to 345 million tonnes and said it remained positioned to reach the lower end of the range. Capital expenditure is expected at the lower end of the US$5.4 billion to US$5.7 billion full-year guidance.
Base metals provide operational support
Vale's base-metals business partly offset the weakness in iron ore. Copper sales declined 4 percent as planned maintenance continued at the Sossego operation, but Salobo delivered record third-quarter production. Nickel sales increased 16.1 percent, supported by stronger production, while nickel production rose 6 percent year over year.
The company kept its copper production guidance of 360,000 to 380,000 tonnes and nickel guidance of 185,000 to 200,000 tonnes. Management expects both metals to finish in the upper half of their respective ranges. Vale also said copper all-in costs should end the year near the lower end of guidance, while nickel costs are expected to improve after planned maintenance.
Vale's chief executive Gustavo Pimenta said the company was building a more flexible iron ore platform and advancing copper growth through the approved Salobo CPF project. The project is intended to use existing infrastructure and support longer-term copper expansion.
Vale stock traded at 10.25 euros on Lang & Schwarz at 14:07 CET on Thursday, November 5, 2026. Investors can follow the real-time quote of Vale stock.
Vale S.A. stock profile
- Company: Vale S.A.
- ISIN: US91912E1055
- Trading venue: Lang & Schwarz
- Quote: 10.25 euros on November 5, 2026 at 14:07 CET
Market conditions for US-listed mining shares can be followed through the S&P 500 market overview.
Further results, operational updates and analysis are available in more news and analyses on Vale stock.
