Tesla stock gains as Morgan Stanley lifts bull case on Semi potential
Published on 09/13/2026 at 14:17 | Editorial responsibility: Rafael Müller, Editor-in-Chief AD HOC NEWS
Tesla, Inc. stock (ISIN US88160R1014) is trading close to USD 365 on Nasdaq as of September 11, 2026, leaving investors to weigh strong second-quarter growth against a rich valuation and new optimism around the Semi electric truck program.
Morgan Stanley’s Semi-driven bull case reshapes upside scenarios
According to The Fly on September 12, 2026, Morgan Stanley analyst Andrew Percoco raised the firm’s bull-case price target for Tesla to USD 840 from USD 820, highlighting the potential of the Tesla Semi to generate high-margin autonomous trucking software revenue.
As GuruFocus reported on September 12, 2026, Morgan Stanley kept its Equal Weight rating on Tesla with a USD 400 base-case price target, even as it projected that autonomous trucking and related software services could add USD 17 billion in annual revenue by 2040 in a bullish scenario.
Based on data summarised by MarketBeat on September 13, 2026, Tesla currently carries an average analyst rating of Hold with a consensus price target around USD 414.68, which implies roughly 13.6 percent upside from a share price of USD 365.44 but still reflects caution about execution risks.
Q2 2026 growth underpins the Semi story but raises valuation questions
Recent second-quarter results provide the fundamental backdrop for the renewed focus on Tesla’s commercial vehicle ambitions, though they also feed the debate about how much future growth is already priced in.
Per company figures for Q2 2026 cited in the same GuruFocus analysis, Tesla generated about USD 28.7 billion in revenue in the quarter, up roughly 15 percent year on year, while automotive gross margin excluding credits edged close to 19 percent as the company balanced price cuts with cost efficiencies.
According to that same Q2 2026 overview, Tesla reported net income of approximately USD 3.4 billion, which represented an increase of around 20 percent versus Q2 2025 and translated into diluted earnings per share of roughly USD 0.95, highlighting that scale benefits in both vehicles and energy segments are supporting profitability.
Guidance for the second half of 2026, as referenced by GuruFocus, indicates that Tesla is targeting vehicle delivery growth in the mid-teens percent range for the full year 2026 compared with 2025, while aiming to keep operating margin in the low double-digit percent area as it ramps investments in autonomy and manufacturing capacity.
Analyst consensus and GF Value highlight a fairly valued but stretched stock
While Morgan Stanley’s USD 840 bull-case target grabs headlines, the broader analyst community remains more measured in its expectations.
As MarketBeat noted on September 13, 2026, recent institutional filings show that Tesla shares opened at USD 365.44 on the latest Nasdaq trading day, and consensus price targets around USD 414.68 sit only moderately above this level, suggesting that many analysts see upside of around 13 to 14 percent but little margin for error.
In parallel, GuruFocus calculates an intrinsic value estimate for Tesla of USD 333.81 per share based on its GF Value metric, compared with a recent trading price of USD 365.44, implying that the stock is about 9.5 percent above this fair value benchmark.
This combination of a modest premium to GF Value and a consensus target only around USD 50 above the current share price underlines a central tension for investors: the market is already assigning a significant valuation to Tesla’s future autonomous and software revenues, even as the underlying businesses are still in relatively early stages of monetisation.
Chart levels around USD 365 frame the recovery
Technical analysts also point to the USD 365 area as a pivotal level in Tesla’s ongoing recovery from its summer lows.
According to a technical review on September 13, 2026 by TradingKey, Tesla shares recently rebounded from around USD 297.38 and reclaimed several Fibonacci retracement levels, including USD 329.35 and USD 349.13, before consolidating near the 0.5 retracement level at approximately USD 365.12.
The same analysis describes USD 365.12 as a critical short-term dividing line between bulls and bears, noting that sustained trading above this level could open a move toward resistance near USD 381.10, while repeated failures to hold it may push the stock back into a consolidation range roughly between USD 361.76 and USD 365.12.
Risks: execution, competition and policy headwinds
The Semi-driven upside scenario is accompanied by notable risks that analysts and investors continue to flag.
As GuruFocus emphasises, the projection of USD 17 billion in software revenue from autonomous trucking by 2040 is subject to uncertainties around regulatory approval, infrastructure, and competitive responses from other truck manufacturers and technology firms.
Meanwhile, the Q2 2026 margin profile shows that Tesla’s automotive gross margins remain sensitive to pricing moves and input costs, meaning that aggressive expansion in lower-margin fleet deals or accelerated investment in autonomy could weigh on near-term profitability even as they support long-term positioning.
Stock holds near USD 365 as of latest Nasdaq close
Per recent price history on Nasdaq referenced by major financial portals, Tesla stock closed around USD 365.44 on Nasdaq on September 11, 2026, with the shares trading within a broad range between roughly USD 297 and just above USD 380 over recent weeks, and with a market capitalization in the order of more than USD 1.3 trillion as of that date.
Tesla stock key data
- Company: Tesla, Inc.
- ISIN: US88160R1014
- Ticker: TSLA
- Trading venue: Nasdaq
- Price (as of September 11, 2026): 365.44 USD
- Market capitalization: 1,300,000,000,000 USD (as of September 11, 2026)
- Sector / Industry: Automobiles / Electric vehicles
- Index membership: S&P 500
