Tesla stock faces split analyst signals after UBS holds Neutral

Published on 09/25/2026 at 13:08 | Editorial responsibility: Rafael Müller, Editor-in-Chief AD HOC NEWS

Tesla stock carries a USD 385 UBS target from September 24, 2026, while BNP Paribas Exane cut its target to USD 268. Q2 revenue rose 25.5 percent to USD 28.24 billion.

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Tesla stock (ISIN US88160R1014) closed at USD 377.94 on Nasdaq on September 24, 2026, down 0.57 percent from the prior close. As Investing.com reported on September 24, 2026, UBS reiterated a Neutral rating and a USD 385 price target.

Analysts split on deliveries

UBS forecasts 470,000 Tesla deliveries in Q3 2026, a 5 percent year-over-year decline but 4 percent above its 454,000-unit consensus reference, according to Investing.com. The same report says Tesla is expected to publish third-quarter deliveries on October 2, 2026.

The bearish counterpoint came from BNP Paribas Exane. MarketBeat reported on September 24, 2026, that the firm cut its target from USD 280 to USD 268 and maintained an Underperform rating.

Revenue grows as margins narrow

Tesla's Q2 2026 revenue reached USD 28.24 billion, up 25.5 percent year over year, while reported EPS was USD 0.33 against a USD 0.50 consensus estimate, according to MarketBeat. The combination shows why delivery growth and earnings quality are pulling in different directions.

Automotive gross margin excluding credits fell to 16.3 percent in Q2 2026 from 19.2 percent in the prior period, a 2.9 percentage-point decline, Scanx reported on September 17, 2026. Tesla also expects 2026 capital expenditures to exceed USD 25 billion, adding pressure to the path from revenue growth to cash generation.

Tesla stock stays below yearly high

The Nasdaq reference price of USD 377.94 on September 24, 2026, stood 24.23 percent below Tesla's 52-week high of USD 498.83 and above the 52-week low of USD 297.38. Market capitalization was USD 1,492,691,942,088 and volume was 25,925,858 shares on the same date.

Tesla stock therefore enters the next delivery checkpoint with a valuation debate already visible in the targets: UBS points to USD 385, while BNP Paribas Exane points to USD 268.