SpaceX stock slips as Nasdaq-100 weight doubles and Morgan Stanley keeps a bullish view
Published on 09/20/2026 at 13:13 | Editorial responsibility: Rafael Müller, Editor-in-Chief AD HOC NEWS
SpaceX stock (ISIN US84615Q1031) recently closed at USD 152.71 on September 18, 2026 on Nasdaq, leaving the high-profile space and launch operator trading about 33 percent below its post-IPO peak while still carrying a market capitalization of roughly USD 2.1 trillion.
Nasdaq-100 weight set to more than double
According to Top1Markets on September 20, 2026, SpaceX (ticker SPCX) is approaching a key index catalyst as its weight in the Nasdaq-100 Index is scheduled to more than double from approximately 1.28 percent to 2.82 percent, effective September 21, 2026.
As NDTV Profit reports on September 20, 2026, SpaceX will represent 2.82 percent of the Nasdaq-100 after the quarterly rebalance, up from about 1.28 percent currently, a change based on closing valuations from the prior trading session.
In practical terms, the more than doubling of SpaceX’s index weight forces passive funds and exchange-traded products tracking the Nasdaq-100 to increase their holdings in the stock as the new weights take effect before the open on September 21, 2026, potentially adding mechanical buying support around that date.
Price action and technical context
SpaceX stock has been volatile around this catalyst. According to TS2 Tech on September 19, 2026, the stock fell 1.36 percent to USD 152.71 during a 335 million-share rebalance session tied to the index adjustment, with an after-hours price of USD 152.64, down USD 0.07 or 0.05 percent from the close.
Analysis from TradingKey on September 20, 2026 highlights that SpaceX shares recently tested intraday levels above USD 155 before reversing to close at USD 152.71 on September 18, 2026, with USD 150 acting as a critical technical support and USD 130 marked as an extreme lower bound.
The same TradingKey analysis suggests the stock could consolidate above that USD 150 support and attempt to reach USD 170 by late September 2026, framing the current price near USD 152.71 as being roughly USD 17.29 below this short-term technical target while still only slightly above the IPO opening price of USD 150 on the first trading day.
Morgan Stanley’s upside scenario and valuation disconnect
While SpaceX stock has slipped about 33 percent from its post-IPO peak level, institutional analysts still see substantial upside potential. As Daily Hodl reports on September 20, 2026, Morgan Stanley reaffirmed its buy rating on SpaceX and maintained a USD 300 price target on September 15, 2026, implying nearly 100 percent upside from the recent trading level around USD 152.71.
That target suggests Morgan Stanley values SpaceX at more than USD 4 trillion based on the current share count, versus the roughly USD 2.1 trillion market capitalization cited near the recent closing price by the same report, underscoring a significant valuation gap between the bank’s long-term assumptions and the market’s present stance.
In addition, Moneycontrol notes on September 19, 2026 that the index weight increase to 2.82 percent from 1.28 percent could help SpaceX narrow its perceived valuation disconnect as index-tracking funds raise exposure, even though the same rebalance session ended with a modest 1.4 percent price decline.
Liquidity, lock-ups and upcoming share releases
Beyond index mechanics, the near-term trading landscape is shaped by scheduled share releases. According to The Motley Fool on September 19, 2026, SpaceX has roughly 328 million shares scheduled for release on September 24, October 9 and October 24, 2026, followed by about 1.3 billion shares unlocking two trading days after the third-quarter report and another roughly 800 million shares on December 8, 2026.
The same analysis points out that CEO Elon Musk’s stake of about 6.4 billion shares, roughly half of SpaceX’s equity, remains locked up until June 2027, which limits immediate supply from the largest insider even as other tranches gradually come to market.
For investors, the combination of increasing index-related demand and a staggered schedule of new tradable shares could create a tug-of-war between mechanical inflows and episodic selling pressure, particularly around each unlock date following the September 21, 2026 index rebalance.
Stock level and market data as of September 20, 2026
Per recent data from Reuters on September 20, 2026, SpaceX shares last traded around USD 152.71 on Nasdaq, down USD 2.10 or 1.36 percent on the day, with an intraday range that included levels above USD 154 before sellers pushed the price back toward the USD 150 technical support area.
Based on the closing price used for the Nasdaq-100 rebalance, the company’s market capitalization stands near USD 2.1 trillion, an extraordinary figure for a relatively recently listed business that reflects its dominant position in commercial launch services, satellite broadband via Starlink and a growing portfolio of government and private contracts.
While detailed 52-week high and low figures are not highlighted in the latest index-focused reports, the Daily Hodl coverage indicates that the current price near USD 152.71 leaves the stock about 33 percent below its post-IPO peak, implying a high somewhere around USD 228 in recent months and placing the shares materially below that high-water mark ahead of the September 21, 2026 index adjustment.
SpaceX stock key data
- Company: Space Exploration Technologies Corp
- ISIN: US84615Q1031
- Ticker: SPCX
- Trading venue: Nasdaq
- Price (as of September 20, 2026): 152.71 USD
- Market capitalization: 2,100,000,000,000 USD (as of September 20, 2026)
- Sector / Industry: Aerospace and defense
- Index membership: Nasdaq-100
- Next earnings date: October 2026 (third-quarter report, per latest coverage)
