Sempra stock weighs Texas growth against California rate risk

Published on 11/11/2026 at 14:45 | Editorial responsibility: Rafael Müller, Editor-in-Chief AD HOC NEWS

Sempra stock faces a sharper split between Texas utility growth and California regulatory risk. Management is guiding toward the high end of its 2026 adjusted earnings range.

What changed for investors

Sempra raised its 2026 GAAP earnings-per-share guidance after a stronger third quarter.
Oncor expects its 2027-2031 base capital plan to increase by approximately 20%.
A California regulatory decision could keep 2027 earnings toward the lower end of the guidance range.

Sempra, US8168511090, Illustration mit AI erstellt.

Sempra reported stronger third-quarter results on November 5, while its outlook increasingly depends on the contrast between Texas investment growth and a California regulatory dispute. In its earnings release, the utility holding company said adjusted earnings rose to $917 million, or $1.40 per diluted share, from $728 million, or $1.11, a year earlier.

Texas growth lifts the outlook

Sempra's GAAP earnings reached $877 million, or $1.34 per diluted share, compared with $77 million, or $0.12, in the third quarter of 2025. The company attributed the improvement to stronger equity earnings from Oncor, new Texas base rates, regulatory mechanisms and higher customer consumption.

Oncor also set a system peak-demand record of 33.3 gigawatts, up 6% from the previous year's record. Sempra said Oncor currently expects its 2027-2031 base capital plan to rise by approximately 20% from the 2026-2030 plan. The company intends to announce the completed plan with its fourth-quarter results next February.

California adds a 2027 risk

The California utilities face a different earnings backdrop. On October 29, the California Public Utilities Commission issued a proposed decision denying SoCalGas and San Diego Gas & Electric's request to correct the capital-attrition mechanism in their 2024 general rate case. Sempra said the decision could leave its 2027 California earnings at the lower end of the segment guidance range if the company does not prevail through other regulatory avenues.

The issue is not an immediate reduction to the company's 2026 adjusted outlook. Sempra guided to the high end of its full-year 2026 adjusted earnings range of $4.80 to $5.30 per share, raised its 2026 GAAP earnings-per-share guidance to $7.41 to $8.41 and affirmed its 2027 range of $5.10 to $5.70. It also maintained a projected long-term earnings growth rate of 7% to 9%.

Management said California capital plans continue to grow, although the pace of growth is changing. The company is also pursuing the planned sale of a 45% equity interest in Sempra Infrastructure Partners to affiliates of KKR, which the November 5 release said was expected to close within two weeks. The transaction is intended to support utility investment and strengthen Sempra's financial position, but completion remains subject to the transaction process.

What the stock now reflects

Sempra stock traded at 70.31 euros on Lang & Schwarz at 14:36 CET on Wednesday, November 11, 2026.

For investors, the earnings update offers a stronger Texas growth engine through rising electricity demand and network investment, while the California decision creates a nearer-term regulatory overhang for 2027. The planned asset sale adds another potential source of capital for regulated utility expansion.