Saab stock gains positive S&P outlook as forecasts rise
Published on 11/12/2026 at 17:41 | Editorial responsibility: Rafael Müller, Editor-in-Chief AD HOC NEWSSaab's credit outlook and growth path
- S&P Global Ratings raised Saab's outlook from stable to positive while affirming its BBB+ rating.
- The agency expects revenue near SEK 100 billion in 2026 and SEK 120 billion in 2027.
- Future rating upside depends on backlog execution, margin improvement and disciplined leverage.
Saab's credit outlook improved after S&P Global Ratings raised its assessment from stable to positive in a report dated Tuesday, November 10, while affirming the defense group's BBB+ rating. Saab stock traded at 55.90 euros on Lang & Schwarz at 17:38 CET on Thursday, November 12, down 1.62 percent from 56.82 euros in the previous report at 10:52 CET.
Growth forecasts move higher
S&P said Saab continues to show strong operating performance, expanding backlog, higher revenue and improving profitability while maintaining a strong balance sheet. The agency now expects revenue to reach almost SEK 100 billion in 2026, compared with SEK 79 billion in 2025, and to reach SEK 120 billion in 2027.
The 2026 forecast is SEK 10 billion above S&P's previous base case. The agency expects annual top-line growth above 20 percent for a fourth consecutive year, according to its S&P Global Ratings report.
Backlog supports capacity expansion
S&P's outlook is supported by Saab's SEK 364 billion order backlog at the end of the third quarter, which provides revenue visibility for the next three to four years. The agency highlighted demand for GlobalEye, Giraffe radar, Gripen E, German fleet renewal and Polish submarines.
Production capacity remains a key execution issue. S&P expects GlobalEye output to rise from approximately two aircraft per year to six by around 2030, while annual Gripen production capacity could increase from 15 aircraft to between 25 and 30.
Upgrade potential depends on execution
S&P said an upgrade could become possible within six to 12 months if Saab sustains its growth, improves margins toward 15 percent and keeps adjusted debt to EBITDA well below 1.5 times. It also forecasts free operating cash flow of SEK 5 billion to SEK 6 billion in both 2026 and 2027.
The positive outlook strengthens the credit backdrop around Saab's order-driven expansion, but investors still face the execution test of converting backlog into deliveries and margins while expanding capacity without weakening financial discipline.
Saab AB market facts
- Company: Saab AB
- ISIN: SE0021921269
- WKN: A403UW
- Ticker: SAAB-B
- Home exchange: Nasdaq Stockholm
- Lang & Schwarz price: 55.90 euros at 17:38 CET on Thursday, November 12, 2026
European defense shares remain sensitive to government procurement, capacity investment and changes in security policy. The OMXS30 market environment provides the broader Swedish equity context.
