Origin Energy stock faces a cost test after wind exit

Published on 10/04/2026 at 10:19 | Editorial responsibility: Rafael Müller, Editor-in-Chief AD HOC NEWS

Origin Energy stock faces a cost test after the company exited its 870-megawatt Skye Ridge project on October 1, 2026. Quarterly profit reached AUD 1.02 billion.

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Origin Energy stock is facing a sharper capital-allocation test after the company exited its 870-megawatt Skye Ridge wind project on October 1, 2026. As Bloomberg reported, Origin will redirect resources to its Northern Tablelands Wind Farm after construction costs weakened the case for developing both projects in parallel.

Wind investment meets higher costs

The decision changes the near-term renewable development mix rather than ending Origin's commitment to the New England Renewable Energy Zone. The company said Northern Tablelands has the strongest prospect of timely delivery, making project execution and capital discipline the central investor issue.

The Skye Ridge exit also illustrates the pressure facing large infrastructure projects. According to Bloomberg, the project was expected to have a capacity of 870 megawatts, while higher construction costs made new wind generation harder to justify.

Profit rises as revenue falls

Origin's latest reported quarter ended June 30, 2026. In the figures carried by The Globe and Mail, quarterly revenue was AUD 7.5 billion versus AUD 8.4 billion a year earlier, while net profit rose to AUD 1.02 billion from AUD 464 million.

That split gives the wind-project decision a broader financial context. Revenue contracted by AUD 900 million year over year, yet quarterly net profit increased by AUD 556 million, leaving earnings quality and the sustainability of project returns as the key questions for the next reporting cycle.

Analyst target stays below the market

Morgan Stanley analyst Robert Koh maintained a Sell rating and set a price target of AUD 10.17 for Origin Energy, according to The Globe and Mail. The target sits below the latest ASX close, highlighting the contrast between the broader analyst consensus cited in the report and the more cautious Morgan Stanley view.

Stock stays tied to October dates

Origin's investor calendar lists its 2026 annual general meeting for October 14, 2026, and its next quarterly report for October 30, 2026, according to the company's investor relations page. The AGM notice published by Listcorp confirms the October 14 meeting at 10:00 a.m. AEDT.

Origin Energy closed at AUD 10.83 on the ASX on October 1, 2026. Its market capitalization was AUD 18.8 billion as of October 2, 2026, keeping project economics and the October reporting date central to the stock's next valuation debate.