ONGC stock: CLSA sees 72% upside after Q2 results

Published on 11/09/2026 at 17:02 | Editorial responsibility: Rafael Müller, Editor-in-Chief AD HOC NEWS

ONGC stock drew fresh attention after CLSA kept its bullish rating following the September-quarter results. New projects could lift output.

CLSA sees production catalysts

ONGC's standalone September-quarter profit fell sequentially but rose sharply year over year.
CLSA expects the KG-98/2 block, Daman Upside and Mumbai High to support future production.

ONGC, INE213A01029, Illustration mit AI erstellt.

CLSA has retained its High Conviction Outperform rating on Oil and Natural Gas Corporation after the state-run energy company reported its September-quarter results. CNBC-TV18 reported on Monday, November 9, that the brokerage maintained a INR 405 price target, implying 72% upside from ONGC's last closing level.

Profit growth met sequential pressure

For the July-to-September quarter of fiscal 2027, standalone profit after tax reached INR 15,489 crore. That was 9.1% below the June quarter, while revenue from operations fell 5.6% sequentially to INR 43,875 crore. EBITDA declined 12.3% to INR 24,860 crore, and the margin narrowed to 57% from 61%.

CLSA said profit was 5% below its estimate because of higher impairment losses and a one-off provision. Operating performance was stronger: EBITDA exceeded the brokerage's forecast by 7%, while core profit before tax was 4% above its estimate.

Projects shape the output outlook

CLSA expects production growth in fiscal 2027 and fiscal 2028 as the KG-98/2 block and the Daman Upside project ramp up. The brokerage also pointed to early gains in gas output from Mumbai High after ONGC began a service contract with BP.

ONGC declared an interim dividend of INR 8 per share alongside the results. CLSA's valuation scenario assumes Brent crude averages USD 82 per barrel in fiscal 2028, compared with around USD 55 per barrel that it believes is reflected in the stock's current valuation. The report's assumptions make future production delivery and crude prices key variables for the investment case.