Nike stock falls toward 12-year low as S&P 100 exit looms

Published on 09/08/2026 at 17:40 | Editorial responsibility: Rafael Müller, Editor-in-Chief AD HOC NEWS

Nike stock is trading near a 12-year low ahead of its removal from the S&P 100, with flat fiscal 2026 revenue and shrinking free cash flow adding pressure to the turnaround story for investors.

Aquarell-Stillleben mit Sportausrüstung, Sneakern und Sporttasche in Blau und Orange — Nike Inc US6541061031 Sportausrüstung als farbenfrohes Aquarell mit Sneakern und Sporttasche künstlerisch dargestellt, Illustration mit AI erstellt.

Nike, Inc. (ISIN US6541061031) stock is trading near a 12-year low around USD 38.40, putting fresh pressure on investors ahead of its removal from the S&P 100 index later in September 2026.FinanceFeeds As of September 4, 2026, the shares closed at USD 38.40 on the New York Stock Exchange, just USD 0.45 above their 52-week low of USD 37.95 and roughly 50 percent below their level a year earlier.FinanceFeeds

Index exit intensifies spotlight on Nike stock

According to S&P Dow Jones Indices, Nike will leave the S&P 100 before the market opens on September 21, 2026, while remaining a constituent of the broader S&P 500.FinanceFeeds The downgrade from the mega-cap benchmark underscores how far the company has fallen in market value: Nike’s market capitalization has dropped from about USD 264 billion at its November 2021 peak to roughly USD 57 billion by early September 2026, erasing more than three quarters of its former value.Chosun

Media reports note that Nike’s share price has fallen by nearly 80 percent from its 2021 high of about USD 179.10 to around USD 38, highlighting the scale of the market’s loss of confidence in the brand’s growth story.Chosun This steep decline contrasts with the broader U.S. equity market, where the S&P 500 has gained in recent years, leaving Nike as a notable laggard among consumer and athletic-apparel names.24/7 Wall St.

Recent fundamentals show stalled growth and weaker cash generation

Recent analysis of Nike’s latest fiscal-year figures shows that revenue in fiscal 2026 was approximately USD 46.4 billion, roughly flat compared with fiscal 2022 levels, indicating that top-line growth has stalled over a multi-year period.FINCHANNEL Over the same window, free cash flow fell from about USD 6.62 billion to just USD 2.18 billion, a drop of roughly 67 percent that signals a much less cash-generative business despite similar revenue.FINCHANNEL

For investors, this combination of flat revenue and sharply lower free cash flow is a key part of the bearish case on Nike stock. Analysts highlight that fiscal 2027 consensus earnings per share are around USD 1.72, rising to USD 2.23 in fiscal 2028, which implies expected growth but from a depressed base and after several years of operational missteps.24/7 Wall St. At the current share price near USD 38, the company trades at a trailing price-earnings multiple of about 18 and a forward multiple near 23, reflecting that the market is still assigning a premium valuation while questioning whether Nike can reignite sustainable growth.24/7 Wall St.

Analyst views split between turnaround hopes and structural concerns

On the bullish side, some Wall Street voices argue that the sell-off has gone too far. One analysis notes that the average analyst target price for Nike stands around USD 50.46, implying roughly 31 percent upside from the USD 38.40 level.24/7 Wall St. In a more aggressive view, Needham analyst Tom Nikic is cited with a Buy rating and a price target of USD 75, suggesting potential upside of about 95 percent if the turnaround succeeds and investor confidence returns.24/7 Wall St.

Other commentators are more cautious, pointing to persistent challenges in China, declining market share, and weaker performance at the Converse brand as signs that the turnaround is far from assured.Forbes One recent assessment stresses that Nike has invested around USD 12.1 billion in share buybacks at an average price near USD 97.57, with approximately USD 5.9 billion still authorized under its repurchase program, yet this capital deployment has not prevented a roughly 78 percent decline from the 2021 peak to current levels near USD 38.Forbes

Risks around governance, strategy and brand momentum

Governance and strategic questions also weigh on sentiment. At the 2026 virtual annual shareholder meeting scheduled for September 8, 2026, Nike’s dual-class share structure is again in focus, with Class A shares concentrated in the hands of founder Phil Knight and related entities.Forbes Commentary suggests that this structure may complicate activist involvement, even though the depressed valuation and long-run underperformance could otherwise make Nike a candidate for activist pressure.Forbes

Brand momentum is another concern. Retail checks cited in recent analysis show that Nike’s popularity in back-to-school surveys fell from about 92.5 percent in 2021 to a low of 38.2 percent in subsequent years, a sharp decline that hints at real erosion in consumer preference amid intense competition from rival sportswear brands.FINCHANNEL Combined with flat revenue and weaker cash generation, this suggests that Nike must do more than incremental product refreshes to rebuild its previous status as a dominant aspirational brand.

Nike products still central to performance and lifestyle segments

Despite the share-price pressure, Nike’s core products remain widely used by athletes and consumers worldwide. The company’s flagship performance-running shoes and lifestyle sneakers, including its Air series and other cushioning platforms, continue to anchor its footwear portfolio and are supported by global marketing campaigns and sponsorships.FINCHANNEL For long-term investors, the breadth of this product base, combined with Nike’s global distribution and digital-direct channels, is central to any thesis that the brand can recover margins and restore growth once inventory, innovation, and regional strategies are recalibrated.

Nike stock near 52-week low on NYSE

In the market, Nike stock remains under clear pressure. According to recent price data as of September 4, 2026, the shares closed at USD 38.40 on the New York Stock Exchange, within USD 0.45 of their 52-week low of USD 37.95 and far below the 52-week high of USD 76.97.FinanceFeeds Based on this share price, Nike’s market capitalization stands around USD 57 billion, down from about USD 264 billion at its November 2021 peak, illustrating how much value has been lost during the downturn.Chosun For investors, the key question is whether the forthcoming S&P 100 exit on September 21, 2026 and the soft fundamental trends mark a low point from which management can rebuild, or whether the challenges in brand momentum and regional performance will persist.