Nike stock falls to 12-year low as S&P 100 exit underscores 78% slide

Published on 09/07/2026 at 15:22 | Editorial responsibility: Rafael Müller, Editor-in-Chief AD HOC NEWS

Nike stock has dropped to a 12-year low near 38 dollars and will be removed from the S&P 100 later in September, as investors weigh weaker China sales and a reset in earnings and valuation.

Fotorealistische Laufschuhe auf Tartanbahn im goldenen Morgenlicht, Sportartikel — Nike Inc US6541061031 zeigt generische Laufschuhe auf einer roten Tartanbahn im goldenen Morgenlicht, Illustration mit AI erstellt.

Nike, Inc. (ISIN US6541061031) stock is trading near a 12-year low around USD 38.40 as of September 4, 2026, after losing roughly 78 percent from its November 2021 peak near USD 179 per share, according to recent market overviews.Fortune India For long-term investors, the combination of index demotion and weaker fundamentals has turned Nike into a turnaround story rather than a growth stalwart.

S&P 100 removal becomes the key September catalyst

The most immediate catalyst for Nike stock is its removal from the S&P 100 index later in September 2026, following an announcement by S&P Dow Jones Indices that the change will take effect before trading opens on September 21, 2026.INDmoney This ends nearly 18 years of Nike’s membership in the large-cap benchmark, although the company will remain in the S&P 500 and continue to trade on the New York Stock Exchange.GuruFocus Index exits of this kind often force passive funds tracking the benchmark to sell, adding mechanical pressure around the effective date.

Market data show that Nike shares closed at USD 38.40 on September 4, 2026, down 0.95 percent from the prior session and roughly 50 percent below a cited 52-week high of USD 76.97, marking their lowest level in about 12 years.Fortune India At that close, the company’s equity value stood near USD 57 billion, compared with roughly USD 280 billion at the November 2021 peak, implying a market-capitalization decline of about USD 224 billion over less than five years.INDmoney For investors, that kind of drawdown is a clear sign that both earnings power and the valuation multiple have reset.

Valuation reset tracks weaker earnings and China pressure

The steep share-price decline has come alongside a meaningful drop in Nike’s earnings per share and pressure on key markets such as China. According to one recent analysis, Nike’s share price has fallen 78.6 percent from USD 179.10 on November 5, 2021 to USD 38.40 on September 4, 2026, while underlying EPS is down 55.6 percent versus fiscal 2021 and the price-to-earnings multiple has compressed from about 50 times to around 24 times earnings.INDmoney That quantified linkage between earnings and valuation helps explain why the stock is not just cheaper but also priced for slower growth.

From a fundamental perspective, Nike’s fiscal 2026 revenue came in at USD 46.4 billion, down 2 percent from the previous fiscal year on a currency-neutral basis, according to a recent breakdown of the company’s latest annual results.Economic Times Within that, Greater China remained a weak spot: in the fourth quarter of fiscal 2026, Greater China revenue fell 17 percent year-on-year on a constant-currency basis after a 10 percent decline in the previous quarter, leaving total China sales for the year at USD 5.85 billion.Economic Times Although the 17 percent decline was slightly better than the roughly 20 percent fall Nike had forecast three months earlier, the region still weighed heavily on investor sentiment.

The margin picture offers a mixed signal. Nike’s gross margin in the fourth quarter of fiscal 2026 rose to 49.2 percent, backed in part by a USD 986 million benefit related to tariff refunds, which is not a repeatable operating gain.Economic Times Adjusted fourth-quarter earnings reached USD 0.20 per share, ahead of the USD 0.13 consensus estimate from analysts surveyed by LSEG, but investors largely looked through the earnings beat because sales were still declining on a currency-neutral basis.Economic Times For investors, this combination of falling revenue, region-specific weakness and one-off margin support is a key risk factor behind the stock’s lower valuation.

Dividend yield and analyst targets frame current risk-reward

Despite the drawdown, Nike continues to return cash to shareholders. Recent filings and market data show a quarterly dividend of USD 0.41 per share, implying an annualized dividend of USD 1.64 and a dividend yield of about 4.3 percent at the current price level.MarketBeat That yield is high relative to Nike’s own history and to some consumer discretionary peers, but it also reflects the market’s skepticism about future growth and profitability.

Consensus analyst views underscore this cautious stance. According to aggregated data, Nike stock currently carries an average rating of Hold with an average 12-month price target of about USD 52.94 per share.MarketBeat Relative to the recent closing price of USD 38.40, that implies upside of roughly 38 percent if the targets are reached, but the Hold rating indicates that many analysts see the path as dependent on stabilizing China sales and sustaining margins without one-off benefits. For investors, the spread between the market price and analyst targets is attractive only if the operational turnaround materializes.

Air Jordan line remains a core brand asset

One of Nike’s most important product families is the Air Jordan line of basketball-inspired footwear and apparel, which remains a central contributor to brand strength even as the broader portfolio faces headwinds. While recent articles have focused more on macro trends and regional revenues than on unit sales for specific products, past disclosures have highlighted that Jordan Brand has generated several billion dollars in annual revenue in recent fiscal years, supported by retro releases and collaborations. In the current environment, the durability of franchises like Air Jordan helps Nike defend its premium positioning, but investors will want to see that these flagship lines continue to grow rather than simply offset weakness elsewhere.

Nike stock price level and trading context

As of the last completed regular session on September 4, 2026, Nike stock closed at USD 38.40 on the New York Stock Exchange, down 0.95 percent from the prior day and sitting roughly 50 percent below its 52-week high of USD 76.97.Fortune India That price is also about 78 percent below the unadjusted November 2021 peak near USD 179 per share, placing the stock near a 12-year low based on historical trading ranges.Yahoo Finance With a market capitalization around USD 57 billion at that close,Fortune India Nike remains a large-cap name, but the index exit and earnings volatility mean the stock is now more of a recovery candidate than a straightforward growth play for many investors.