Nike stock falls as S&P 100 removal and analyst downgrades deepen pressure
Published on 09/21/2026 at 13:38 | Editorial responsibility: Rafael Müller, Editor-in-Chief AD HOC NEWS
Nike stock (ISIN US6541061031) is trading at about USD 35.51 as of September 21, 2026 on the New York Stock Exchange, close to multi-year lows after losing its place in the S&P 100 index and facing a series of analyst downgrades and price target cuts in recent days.TheStreet reports that S&P Dow Jones Indices removed Nike from the S&P 100 effective before the start of trading on September 21, 2026, replacing it with Palo Alto Networks.
Index removal and price pressure
As TheStreet explains on September 20, 2026, Nike is being removed from the S&P 100, though it remains a component of the S&P 500 and continues to trade on the New York Stock Exchange under the ticker NKE.
A Spanish-language analysis from El Mundo on September 21, 2026 also highlights that Nike has been removed from the S&P 100 after almost 18 years in the index, noting that the decision comes amid falling sales and that the shares have lost about 77% of their market value from previous highs.
For investors, the index exit is a psychological blow because it reduces Nike’s profile among large-cap blue chips and often triggers passive selling from funds tracking the S&P 100. With the stock around USD 35.51, that loss of status now coincides with a steep valuation reset and heightened scrutiny of Nike’s earnings and growth prospects.
Recent earnings and margin dynamics
According to an earnings call summary for Q4/2026 on Investing.com, Nike reported earnings per share of USD 0.20 for the quarter ended June 30, 2026, beating the consensus forecast of USD 0.12 by USD 0.08.
In the same Q4/2026 report, Nike generated revenue of about USD 11.0 billion versus analyst expectations of roughly USD 10.85 billion, delivering a modest beat on the top line as well.Investing.com notes that on a currency-neutral basis Q4 revenue declined 4 percent year-over-year, illustrating that even with the beat, underlying demand remains under pressure.
The same earnings summary shows that Nike’s reported gross margin reached 49.2 percent in Q4/2026, boosted by a one-time tariff recovery benefit of about USD 986 million.Investing.com indicates that excluding this one-off, the underlying gross margin was around 40.2 percent, down about 0.1 percentage points compared with the prior year, reinforcing concerns about margin pressure in Nike’s core operations.
Looking ahead, management has guided for a low-to-mid single-digit revenue decline over the next three quarters, signaling that fiscal 2027 will be a reset year rather than a growth phase.Investing.com describes CEO Elliott Hill’s strategy as focusing on sport-led innovation and marketplace execution while Nike works through challenges in China and adjusts its product mix.
Full-year figures show mixed segment trends
Elaborating on the broader picture, El Mundo reports that Nike closed its fiscal year 2026 with revenue of about USD 46.4 billion, flat in reported terms and down roughly 2 percent when adjusted for currency effects compared with the prior fiscal year.
The same article notes that Nike’s net income for fiscal 2026 was around USD 3.1 billion, which represents a decline of about 3 percent year-over-year, underscoring that profit growth has stalled even before the latest share price slide.
Breaking down fiscal 2026 by channel, El Mundo highlights that Nike Direct, which includes own stores and digital platforms, generated revenue of about USD 17.7 billion, down around 6 percent versus the previous year and about 8 percent lower at constant exchange rates, while wholesale revenue rose approximately 6 percent to USD 27.5 billion.
Regionally, Nike’s fiscal 2026 revenue grew by about 5 percent at constant exchange rates in North America, but declined 3 percent in Europe, Middle East and Africa, 13 percent in Greater China and 1 percent in Asia-Pacific and Latin America.El Mundo attributes part of the weakness in Nike Direct to lower store traffic and a double-digit decline in digital sales, which fell about 12 percent, while physical store sales decreased about 4 percent.
Wave of analyst downgrades and lower price targets
The pressure on Nike stock has been compounded by a series of cautious analyst views and reduced price targets. An overview on Investing.com shows an average 12-month price target of USD 48.21 for Nike, implying upside of roughly 35.8 percent from the USD 35.51 price as of September 21, 2026, but many individual houses have recently cut their targets.
As Investing.com reports on September 21, 2026, Stifel lowered its price target on Nike from USD 45 to USD 40 while maintaining a Hold rating, citing margin and demand concerns.
In the same article, Investing.com notes that Morgan Stanley resumed coverage on Nike with an Underweight rating and set a price target of USD 31, while UBS cut its target from USD 48 to USD 42 and kept a Neutral stance, both pointing to deteriorating global sales trends and concerns about earnings per share.
Telsey Advisory Group also reduced its price target for Nike from USD 47 to USD 44, maintaining a Hold view and stressing a slow turnaround and signs of consumer fatigue with some lifestyle footwear styles, even as it acknowledges Nike’s strategic push in performance sports and product portfolio adjustments.Investing.com adds that Wells Fargo has flagged China as a particular challenge, with local competitors offering better value and shorter lead times in a weak demand environment.
An analyst snapshot on MarketBeat dated September 21, 2026 shows that one analyst rates Nike Strong Buy, nine rate it Buy, twenty-one have Hold and six assign Sell ratings, with a consensus price target of around USD 48.91 and an average rating of Hold, underscoring a cautious but not uniformly bearish stance.
Competitive and macro headwinds
Competitive pressure is also weighing on sentiment. The Stifel-focused article on Investing.com points out that On Holding AG is stepping up in the global football market by signing star player Kylian Mbappe, while BMO Capital maintains a Market Perform rating and a USD 28 price target on On Holding, highlighting the intensifying competition in performance sports where Nike traditionally has a leading position.
Macro factors are also in play. A Daily Market note from Kiwoom Sekuritas Indonesia mentions that IBM, Disney and Nike were among the main drags on the Dow Jones index recently, with Nike falling to its lowest level in five years, reflecting broad market concerns and investor risk aversion.
Against this backdrop, some valuation-focused research argues that the sell-off has gone too far. A GuruFocus analysis referenced in an earlier summary on Ad-hoc-news noted that at a price around USD 35.51 the shares trade more than 50 percent below an estimated fair value of USD 72.89, framing the move as a sharp de-rating amid worries about earnings momentum and dividend sustainability.
Nike stock price, market cap and next earnings date
Per the latest data on Investing.com, Nike stock is quoted at USD 35.51 on the New York Stock Exchange as of September 21, 2026, with a previous close also at USD 35.51. The same overview lists Nike’s market capitalization at about USD 53 billion as of September 21, 2026, a level that reflects the significant destruction of shareholder value since earlier peaks.
An earnings calendar compiled by ieconomy.io on September 21, 2026 shows that Nike is scheduled to release its next quarterly results on October 1, 2026, after the market close, with consensus earnings per share of USD 0.44 and a market value listed at USD 53 billion.
For retail investors, the October 1, 2026 report will be a crucial checkpoint: it will test whether Nike can stabilize revenue after the guided low-to-mid single-digit decline and whether margin initiatives can offset the pressures from weaker demand and rising competition. With the shares near a five-year low and no longer in the S&P 100, the market’s reaction to that earnings release will likely set the tone for Nike stock for the rest of 2026.
Nike stock key data
- Company: NIKE, Inc.
- ISIN: US6541061031
- Ticker: NKE
- Trading venue: New York Stock Exchange
- Price (as of September 21, 2026): 35.51 USD
- Market capitalization: 53,000,000,000 USD (as of September 21, 2026)
- Sector / Industry: Consumer Discretionary / Footwear and Apparel
- Index membership: S&P 500
- Next earnings date: October 1, 2026
