NAB expects November rate hike and tests NAB stock

Published on 10/29/2026 at 15:23 | Editorial responsibility: Rafael Müller, Editor-in-Chief AD HOC NEWS

A 25 basis point RBA move is now NAB's call for November. NAB stock was at EUR 25.81 at Lang & Schwarz on October 29, 2026.

What the new rate view adds

NAB said September headline inflation reached 4.30 percent year over year.
The bank said 59 percent of the consumer basket was running above a 3.50 percent annualized rate over three months.
The latest view adds a monetary-policy risk to the weaker business-confidence reading discussed in earlier coverage.

NAB, AU000000NAB4, Illustration mit AI erstellt.

National Australia Bank Limited (AU000000NAB4) now expects the Reserve Bank of Australia to raise its cash rate by 25 basis points in November. In its October 28, 2026 analysis, NAB linked the change to inflation and the central bank's reassessment of domestic capacity pressures.

Inflation keeps the pressure high

NAB said September headline inflation was 4.30 percent year over year, while third-quarter trimmed-mean inflation reached 3.70 percent year over year. The bank also said 59 percent of the consumer basket was rising at an annualized rate above 3.50 percent over the latest three-month period.

That combination matters for the bank's outlook because NAB expects tighter monetary policy to slow gross domestic product growth and delay the return of inflation to target. The analysis also points to elevated energy costs and broad price pressure as risks beyond the immediate rate decision.

What the shift changes

The new view adds a clear policy risk to NAB's operating backdrop. Higher rates can support lending margins, but they can also weigh on housing demand, credit growth and borrowers' repayment capacity. The effect on earnings will therefore depend on how quickly funding costs and credit quality respond.

NAB's shareholder center lists the full-year results announcement for November 5, 2026. That release will provide the next company-specific test of earnings, costs and balance-sheet trends after the bank's updated rate call.

Stock price for Australian investors

The latest euro quote put NAB at EUR 25.81 at Lang & Schwarz on October 29, 2026 at 3:10 p.m. CET. The quote is presented as a dated market indication because a verified Xetra closing basis was not established for this Australian listing.