Morningstar flags weak third-quarter outlook for Volkswagen stock

Published on 10/22/2026 at 11:26 | Editorial responsibility: Rafael Müller, Editor-in-Chief AD HOC NEWS

Global volumes are forecast 14 percent lower in third-quarter 2026. Volkswagen stock costs EUR 68.45 on October 22, 2026, below the EUR 69.10 Xetra close.

Earnings risks and timing

Morningstar forecast Volkswagen's third-quarter global volumes 14 percent lower on October 22, 2026.
Europe's electric vehicle order book reached 40 percent, 18 percent higher than at the end of 2025.
Volkswagen stock trades at EUR 68.45 at 11:15 a.m. CEST at Lang & Schwarz on October 22, 2026, 0.94 percent below the Xetra close of October 21, 2026.
Volkswagen will publish its January to September 2026 results on October 29, 2026.

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Volkswagen AG (ISIN DE0007664039) was trading at EUR 68.45 at Lang & Schwarz on October 22, 2026 at 11:15 a.m. CEST, down 0.94 percent versus the Xetra close of October 21, 2026 at EUR 69.10. Morningstar said on October 22 that falling sales and margin pressure could weigh on the group's third-quarter results. The October 29 report is therefore the next test for Volkswagen's restructuring and electric vehicle strategy.

Three dates frame the earnings test

On July 24, 2026, Volkswagen's investor page showed first-half revenue of EUR 158.1 billion, broadly unchanged from EUR 158.4 billion a year earlier, while operating profit fell 11.6 percent to EUR 5.9 billion. On October 12, 2026, the group reported 6.01 million deliveries for the first nine months, down 9.00 percent from 6.60 million in the prior-year period, according to MarketScreener. On October 22, 2026, Morningstar forecast global third-quarter volumes 14 percent lower year over year.

What does the electric order book mean?

The mix offers Volkswagen one counterweight to weaker volumes. Morningstar said on October 22 that battery-electric vehicles represented 40 percent of the European order book, 18 percent higher than at the end of 2025. MarketScreener reported that nine-month battery-electric deliveries reached 678,700 vehicles, down 5.4 percent year over year, while European battery-electric deliveries grew 12.1 percent.

Analyst targets split over China risk

RBC Capital Markets cut its target from EUR 120.00 to EUR 115.00 on October 14, 2026, while keeping an Outperform rating, according to finanzen.net. The revised target remains 68.01 percent above the Lang & Schwarz price. Morningstar's fair value estimate was EUR 116.00 on October 22, but its outlook flagged China volumes down 39 percent in the third quarter and higher incentives in Europe and North America.

Results and investor dates

Volkswagen Group lists the January to September 2026 interim report for October 29, 2026. Its calendar also names the UBS European Conference in London on November 11, 2026. Those dates put delivery trends, operating profit and the cost of the transformation in the same reporting window.

Stock level before the report

Volkswagen stock was trading at EUR 68.45 at Lang & Schwarz on October 22, 2026 at 11:15 a.m. CEST, 0.94 percent below the Xetra close of October 21, 2026 at EUR 69.10. The 52-week range is EUR 65.92 to EUR 109.15, placing the quote EUR 2.53 above its low and EUR 40.70 below its high. The further course of trading is shown by the continuously updated real-time quote of Volkswagen stock.