Merdeka Battery Materials stock faces a 13.6 percent target gap

Published on 10/08/2026 at 09:37 | Editorial responsibility: Rafael Müller, Editor-in-Chief AD HOC NEWS

Merdeka Battery Materials stock carries an IDR 425 KAF target after its IDR 492 close on October 6, 2026. First-half revenue rose 67 percent to USD 1.05 billion.

Merdeka Battery Materials, ID1000188303, Illustration mit AI erstellt.

Merdeka Battery Materials stock (ISIN ID1000188303) carries a fundamental target of IDR 425 from KAF Sekuritas, compared with IDR 492 at the October 6, 2026 close, according to KAF Sekuritas on October 7, 2026. The target implies the price lies 13.6 percent below the research target.

KAF flags valuation pressure

KAF assigned MBMA an Underweight fundamental view while its short-term technical signal was Sell on Strength. The research listed IDR 505 as first resistance, IDR 520 as second resistance and IDR 456 as the cut-loss level.

The contrast matters because the stock had gained 2.07 percent at the October 6 close, but KAF described the move as a technical rebound rather than a trend reversal. RSI stood at 81.81, and trading volume reached 69,797,700 shares, equal to 0.52 times the average volume of 133,932,749 shares.

Profit growth meets operating risks

Merdeka Battery Materials reported first-half 2026 net income attributable to owners of USD 54.43 million, up 830 percent from the comparable period, according to Investor.id on September 26, 2026. Revenue rose 67 percent to USD 1.05 billion, while EBITDA increased 306 percent to USD 311 million.

Operational growth was also measurable. First-half nickel ore production reached 15.2 million wet metric tonnes, up 121 percent year over year, while ore sales increased 60 percent to 12.4 million wet metric tonnes.

Margins remain the key test

KAF identified weaker downstream margins and higher operating costs as the main counterweight to the earnings advance. Its research also cited a 45 percent reduction in the limonite reference price from September 15, 2026, while limonite represented 66 percent of first-half ore sales.

The company is developing its integrated nickel chain, including the Sulawesi Nickel Cobalt project, where first mixed hydroxide precipitate production was targeted for the second half of 2026. That expansion offers an operating catalyst, while the IDR 425 target shows that the analyst view still places greater weight on valuation and near-term margin pressure.

MBMA price stays at October 6 close

Merdeka Battery Materials closed at IDR 492 on the IDX on October 6, 2026, after gaining 2.07 percent. The stock's market setup combines rapid first-half growth with a dated Underweight view from KAF Sekuritas.