IG Group stock gets a lower Panmure target after Q3 warning

Published on 10/05/2026 at 20:36 | Editorial responsibility: Rafael Müller, Editor-in-Chief AD HOC NEWS

IG Group stock faces a lower Panmure target after the October 2 warning. Q3 revenue is expected at GBP 240 million, while active customers rose 17 percent.

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IG Group (ISIN GB00B06QFB75) was last at GBp 986 on the London Stock Exchange at 5:08 p.m. BST on October 5, 2026, down 0.40 percent on the session. The immediate pressure came from Panmure Liberum, which cut its target from GBp 2,000 to GBp 1,500 while retaining a Buy rating, as Yahoo Finance reported on October 5, 2026.

Q3 warning changes the earnings base

IG Group's Q3 2026 trading update covered the three months ended September 30, 2026. According to TradingView, total revenue was expected at GBP 240 million, compared with GBP 280.1 million in Q3 2025. That implies a 14.3 percent year-over-year decline.

The company also shifted its 2026 total revenue-growth outlook to a mid-single-digit percentage range. The change followed OTC revenue retention of 70 percent in Q3, compared with the 80 percent average cited for the period from the second half of 2025 through Q3 2026.

Customer growth offsets retention risk

The operating picture is mixed rather than uniformly weak. Organic first trades increased more than 25 percent year over year and active customers rose 17 percent in Q3 2026, while OTC customer income increased 8 percent, according to TradingView. Underdog net revenue reached USD 105 million, more than double the year-earlier figure.

Panmure's revised 2026 forecast puts revenue at GBP 1.175 billion and adjusted EBITDA at GBP 478.8 million. Its target of GBp 1,500 lies 52.1 percent above the October 5 price, but the broker identified a recovery in fourth-quarter retention as the central condition for that valuation, according to Yahoo Finance.

Consensus stays above the market price

MarketBeat reported a Moderate Buy consensus from four analysts, with three Buy ratings and one Hold rating, and an average target of GBp 1,550. That consensus target lies 57.2 percent above the October 5 price, according to MarketBeat.

IG Group's latest investor-relations highlights show 2025 total revenue of GBP 1,123.4 million, up from GBP 1,052.2 million in 2024, while profit before tax rose to GBP 563.7 million from GBP 490.2 million. The figures provide a profitable historical base, but the current valuation debate centers on whether OTC retention can recover.

IG Group stock approaches yearly low

At GBp 986 on October 5, 2026, IG Group stock stood 5.9 percent above its 52-week low of GBp 930.50 and 49.6 percent below its 52-week high of GBp 1,956. Market capitalization was GBP 3.3 billion on the same date.