HelloFresh stock reports a sharp 2026 outlook cut

Published on 09/30/2026 at 14:53 | Editorial responsibility: Rafael Müller, Editor-in-Chief AD HOC NEWS

HelloFresh stock faces a 2026 revenue decline forecast of 9% to 11% after the September 24, 2026 warning. Adjusted EBITDA guidance is EUR 350 million to EUR 370 million, below the old range.

Aquarell-Illustration mit Karotten, Tomaten, Aubergine, Lauch und Kräutern in Pastellfarben — Aquarell-Illustration stilisierter frischer Gemüse und Kräuter in zarten Pastellfarben — dekoratives Motiv im Stil des Online-Lebensmittel-Segments von HelloFresh SE (ISIN DE000A161408), Illustration mit AI erstellt.

HelloFresh stock (ISIN DE000A161408) was trading at EUR 2.34 at Lang & Schwarz on September 30, 2026 at 2:37 p.m. CEST, plus 0.86 percent versus the prior close of EUR 2.32. The company responded to weak new-customer growth by cutting its 2026 outlook.

Guidance falls below expectations

According to HelloFresh on September 24, 2026, third-quarter revenue is expected to decline 11% to 12% year over year in constant currency. That compares with a 6.8% decline in the latest broker consensus.

The company also guided for third-quarter adjusted EBITDA of EUR 45 million to EUR 55 million, below the EUR 57.20 million consensus. Management attributed the weaker customer acquisition mainly to a year-over-year reduction in third-quarter marketing spending.

Annual targets reset again

HelloFresh now expects 2026 revenue to decline 9% to 11% in constant currency. The previous outlook called for a decline at the lower end of a 3% to 6% range, while the latest consensus indicated a 6.9% decline.

Full-year adjusted EBITDA guidance was reduced to EUR 350 million to EUR 370 million from EUR 375 million to EUR 425 million. The new range also sits below the EUR 375.60 million consensus cited in the September 24 release, making customer acquisition and marketing efficiency central to the next results.

For investors, the comparison is straightforward: the new revenue range is weaker than both the previous company outlook and the market estimate, while the profit range is below its former floor. The business remains centered on meal kits and other culinary products delivered to households, so customer additions are an important operating signal.

Analysts cut valuation benchmarks

As Finanznachrichten reported on September 28, 2026, Berenberg cut its price target from EUR 9.00 to EUR 5.00 while retaining a Buy rating. AskTraders reported on September 29, 2026 that mwb research cut its target from EUR 2.90 to EUR 1.80 and downgraded HelloFresh from Hold to Sell.

The next scheduled checkpoint is November 5, 2026, when HelloFresh plans to publish third-quarter and nine-month results. That date gives the market a defined test for the customer-acquisition weakness and the lower profitability guidance.

Stock trades near EUR 2.34

HelloFresh stock was trading at EUR 2.34 at Lang & Schwarz on September 30, 2026 at 2:37 p.m. CEST, plus 0.86 percent versus the prior close of EUR 2.32. The modest intraday change contrasts with the scale of the guidance reset announced six days earlier.