HelloFresh stock gains 3.76 percent ahead of Q3 results

Published on 10/07/2026 at 13:26 | Editorial responsibility: Rafael Müller, Editor-in-Chief AD HOC NEWS

HelloFresh's 2026 revenue outlook now points to a 9 percent to 11 percent decline after weaker customer growth. Q3 results are due November 5, 2026.

Schwarzweißes Reportagefoto von Arbeitern beim Packen von Kochboxen im Lager — HelloFresh SE (DE000A161408) betreibt Logistikzentren, in denen Kochboxen für Kunden dokumentarisch schwarzweiß gepackt werden, Illustration mit AI erstellt.

HelloFresh stock (ISIN DE000A161408) was trading at EUR 2.43 on Xetra on October 7, 2026 at 1:02 p.m. CEST, up 3.76 percent from the prior close. The next major checkpoint is the company's third-quarter report on November 5, 2026.

Guidance remains the central issue

HelloFresh said on September 24, 2026, that third-quarter revenue could decline 11 percent to 12 percent in constant currency, compared with a 6.8 percent decline in the analyst consensus. Adjusted EBITDA was projected at EUR 45 million to EUR 55 million, below the EUR 57.2 million consensus.

The full-year 2026 outlook now calls for revenue to decline 9 percent to 11 percent in constant currency, versus the previous range of a decline at the lower end of 3 percent to 6 percent. Adjusted EBITDA guidance was reduced to EUR 350 million to EUR 370 million from EUR 375 million to EUR 425 million, making customer acquisition and marketing efficiency the key operating tests for the next report.

Profitability had improved in Q2

The second-quarter picture was more resilient than the later warning. According to Yahoo Finance, Q2 2026 group revenue was EUR 1.5 billion, down 7.8 percent in constant currency, while adjusted EBITDA reached EUR 120.6 million with a 7.8 percent margin.

Meal Kits generated EUR 167 million of adjusted EBITDA at a 15.1 percent margin in Q2 2026. Ready-to-Eat reported a 3 percent margin, while its first-half adjusted EBITDA improved to negative EUR 13.6 million from negative EUR 26.4 million in the first half of 2025.

Targets remain above the share price

Analyst views remain divided after the guidance cut. Finanzen.ch reported on September 25, 2026, that JPMorgan lowered its price target from EUR 3.30 to EUR 2.70 while retaining a Neutral rating. The target lies 11.11 percent above the EUR 2.43 Xetra price.

Finanzen.ch reported on September 28, 2026, that Berenberg cut its target from EUR 9.00 to EUR 5.00 but kept a Buy rating. The wide gap between the target and the market price reflects the high sensitivity of the investment case to customer growth and execution.

Share price stays below yearly high

HelloFresh was trading at EUR 2.43 on Xetra on October 7, 2026 at 1:02 p.m. CEST, with a session range of EUR 2.33 to EUR 2.44. The 52-week range was EUR 2.16 to EUR 7.92, while market capitalization stood at EUR 347.7 million and volume reached 307,699 shares.