HelloFresh stock falls after guidance cut and analyst downgrade

Published on 10/03/2026 at 22:20 | Editorial responsibility: Rafael Müller, Editor-in-Chief AD HOC NEWS

HelloFresh stock traded at EUR 2.337 on October 2, 2026, after the company reduced its 2026 outlook. mwb cut its target to EUR 1.80 from EUR 2.90.

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HelloFresh stock (ISIN DE000A161408) traded at EUR 2.337 on Xetra on October 2, 2026 at 5:35 p.m. CET, down 2.62% on the session. The move followed a September 24 warning that weaker new-customer acquisition would push revenue below expectations in the third quarter and across fiscal 2026.

Guidance falls below consensus

According to HelloFresh on September 24, 2026, Q3 revenue is expected to decline 11% to 12% year over year in constant currency, compared with broker consensus for a 6.8% decline. The company said the back-to-school period generated fewer new customers than required to support its previous outlook.

The full-year 2026 revenue forecast now calls for a 9% to 11% decline in constant currency, compared with the previous outlook for a decline at the lower end of a 3% to 6% range. Adjusted EBITDA guidance was reduced to EUR 350 million to EUR 370 million from EUR 375 million to EUR 425 million, leaving the new upper end EUR 55 million below the prior upper end.

Analysts debate the recovery cost

As AskTraders reported on September 29, 2026, mwb Research downgraded HelloFresh from Hold to Sell and cut its price target to EUR 1.80 from EUR 2.90. The broker linked the change to the failed customer-acquisition push and modeled revenue declining an average of 1.4% annually from 2026 through 2033.

A more constructive view remains visible in coverage. Markets Insider reported on September 28, 2026, that Berenberg maintained a Buy rating with a EUR 5.00 price target. The split shows that marketing efficiency and customer growth, rather than the guidance headline alone, now drive the valuation debate.

November results set the test

HelloFresh plans to publish its Q3 and nine-month 2026 financial statements on November 5, 2026, according to HelloFresh. Those figures will put the 11% to 12% revenue forecast against actual order and customer trends.

HelloFresh stock trades below EUR 2.40

HelloFresh stock was at EUR 2.337 on Xetra on October 2, 2026 at 5:35 p.m. CET, a 2.62% daily decline. The next quantified test is the November 5 reporting date and whether lower marketing spending can protect adjusted EBITDA while restoring customer acquisition.