HelloFresh stock faces weaker 2026 outlook after warning risks rise in customer growth

Published on 10/05/2026 at 16:25 | Editorial responsibility: Rafael Müller, Editor-in-Chief AD HOC NEWS

HelloFresh stock traded at EUR 2.36 on October 5, while 2026 revenue guidance points to a 9 percent to 11 percent decline. Deutsche Bank keeps a EUR 3.50 target.

Trading-Floor mit Bildschirmen, aufsteigendem Aktienchart und Schriftzug MDAX Xetra Berlin — HelloFresh SE (DE000A161408) wird an der Frankfurter Börse gehandelt, editoriell dargestellt auf einem MDAX-Trading-Floor, Illustration mit AI erstellt.

HelloFresh stock (ISIN DE000A161408) was trading at EUR 2.36 on Xetra on October 5, 2026, up 0.98 percent, while the meal-kit company works through a sharply weaker 2026 outlook. The stock's immediate market value was EUR 338.3 million, with 382,081 shares changing hands by 4:06 p.m. CEST.

Revenue outlook moves lower

In an announcement dated September 24, 2026, finanzen.ch reported that HelloFresh expects third-quarter 2026 revenue to decline 11 percent to 12 percent year over year in constant currency. That compares with the company's stated market expectation of a 6.8 percent decline.

The full-year revenue outlook is now a 9 percent to 11 percent decline in constant currency, compared with the previous outlook of a decline between 3 percent and 6 percent. The company linked the revision to weaker new-customer acquisition during the back-to-school period and lower third-quarter marketing spend.

Profit range also narrows

HelloFresh cut its 2026 adjusted EBITDA outlook to EUR 350 million to EUR 370 million in constant currency, from EUR 375 million to EUR 425 million previously, according to finanzen.ch. The new range also sits below the EUR 375.6 million consensus cited in the September 24 announcement.

Analyst views have become more divided. finanzen.ch reported on September 28 that Deutsche Bank retained its Hold rating and a EUR 3.50 price target. That target lies 48.3 percent above the October 5 price of EUR 2.36.

A separate review by Yahoo Finance on October 1 placed recent targets between EUR 2.30 and EUR 3.50. It cited execution, marketing efficiency and margin resilience as the central areas dividing analysts.

Stock remains below yearly high

HelloFresh was trading within an October 5 intraday range of EUR 2.34 to EUR 2.42 on Xetra. Its 52-week range was EUR 2.16 to EUR 7.92, leaving the stock 70.2 percent below the yearly high and 9.3 percent above the low.

The next scheduled reporting date is November 5, 2026, when HelloFresh plans to publish its third-quarter and first-nine-month results. For investors, the key test is whether customer acquisition and marketing efficiency improve enough to narrow the gap between the revised outlook and the former growth plan.