HelloFresh cuts 2026 outlook. HelloFresh stock sits 32.57 percent below target

Published on 10/05/2026 at 09:39 | Editorial responsibility: Rafael Müller, Editor-in-Chief AD HOC NEWS

Third-quarter 2026 revenue is forecast to fall 11.00 to 12.00 percent. HelloFresh stock costs EUR 2.36 on October 5, 2026 after EUR 2.38.

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HelloFresh (ISIN DE000A161408) was trading at EUR 2.36 at Lang & Schwarz on October 5, 2026 at 9:33 a.m. CEST, with a change of minus 0.84 percent versus the prior close of EUR 2.38. On September 24, 2026, EQS News reported that the company cut its 2026 revenue outlook to a 9.00 to 11.00 percent decline from a previous 3.00 to 6.00 percent decline and reduced adjusted EBITDA guidance to EUR 350 million to EUR 370 million from EUR 375 million to EUR 425 million. The EUR 3.50 Deutsche Bank target cited by Yahoo Finance leaves the price 32.57 percent below that target.

Guidance points below consensus

HelloFresh expects third-quarter 2026 revenue to decline 11.00 to 12.00 percent year over year in constant currency, compared with a 6.80 percent decline in market expectations, according to EQS News. Adjusted EBITDA is projected at EUR 45 million to EUR 55 million, below the EUR 57.20 million consensus.

The midpoint of the new full-year adjusted EBITDA range is EUR 360 million, compared with EUR 400 million at the midpoint of the previous range. That represents a EUR 40 million reduction in the central outlook, while the revenue forecast also moved from a maximum 6.00 percent decline to a maximum 11.00 percent decline.

Analyst targets diverge

Recent research shows a wide spread in expectations. Markets Insider reported on September 28, 2026 that Berenberg maintained a Buy rating and set a EUR 5.00 target, while Deutsche Bank maintained Hold with a EUR 3.50 target. Yahoo Finance also described targets between EUR 2.30 and EUR 3.50, highlighting differing views on execution, marketing efficiency and margin resilience.

November results set the next test

HelloFresh is scheduled to publish its third-quarter and first nine-month results on November 5, 2026, according to the company calendar and the EQS News announcement. The report will show whether customer acquisition and marketing efficiency improved after the back-to-school period.

Stock remains below analyst targets

HelloFresh was trading at EUR 2.36 at Lang & Schwarz on October 5, 2026 at 9:33 a.m. CEST, versus the EUR 2.38 prior close, a change of minus 0.84 percent. The further course of trading is shown by the continuously updated real-time quote of HelloFresh stock.