Goldman Sachs stock falls as softer trading and higher costs cloud Q3 outlook
Published on 09/18/2026 at 13:46 | Editorial responsibility: Rafael Müller, Editor-in-Chief AD HOC NEWS
The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. stock (ISIN US38141G1040) is under scrutiny as investors weigh a softer trading backdrop and rising expenses against strong deal-making revenue heading into the third quarter of 2026. According to The Globe and Mail on September 17, 2026, Goldman Sachs expects softer fixed-income trading and higher non-compensation expenses to partly offset ongoing strength in investment banking in the current quarter.
Q3 2026 outlook points to pressure on trading margins
The near-term focus for Goldman Sachs stock is the performance of its Global Banking & Markets division in the third quarter of 2026, where the trading environment has turned less favorable. The third-quarter 2026 outlook cited by The Globe and Mail indicates that softer fixed-income, currencies and commodities (FICC) trading could weigh on Global Banking & Markets results in the quarter ending September 30, 2026.
In addition to the weaker FICC activity, non-compensation expenses are expected to rise materially. According to The Globe and Mail, Goldman Sachs anticipates that non-compensation costs will increase by more than USD 500 million sequentially in the third quarter of 2026. For investors, this expected cost inflation is a key risk to short-term margin resilience, particularly if trading revenues come in below the strong levels seen earlier in the year.
Strong first-half 2026 revenues set the comparison bar high
The pressure on the third quarter comes after an exceptionally strong first half of 2026 for Goldman Sachs, which raises the comparison bar for upcoming results. According to the same analysis by The Globe and Mail, Goldman generated USD 6.24 billion in investment banking fees in the first half of 2026, up 52 percent year over year, supported by robust advisory and underwriting activity.
Beyond deal-making, trading and markets revenues also expanded over this period. FICC revenues came in at USD 8.60 billion in the first half of 2026, rising 9 percent versus the prior-year period, while Global Banking & Markets revenues climbed 35 percent year over year to USD 28.26 billion, according to The Globe and Mail. The quantified jump in investment banking fees and double-digit growth in Global Banking & Markets revenues underline how strong the first half was, making any slowdown in the third quarter more visible in year-over-year comparisons.
From a valuation perspective, Goldman Sachs shares are not priced for distress but also do not appear deeply discounted relative to peers. As of the mid-September 2026 analysis, GS trades at a forward price-to-earnings ratio of 13.16, compared with an industry average of 13.43, according to The Globe and Mail. Over the past year, GS shares have gained 16.6 percent, outpacing industry growth of 12.6 percent, which suggests that part of the strong first-half performance is already reflected in the share price.
Earnings trajectory and long-term profit expectations
While the immediate concern for Goldman Sachs stock centers on softer FICC trading and higher expenses in the third quarter of 2026, consensus earnings expectations still imply meaningful profit growth over the next two years. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for GS earnings in 2026 and 2027 points to year-over-year increases of 34.2 percent and 4.9 percent, respectively, according to The Globe and Mail. This indicates that analysts still expect Goldman Sachs to deliver sizeable profit growth in 2026, followed by a more moderate increase in 2027.
This earnings trajectory is broadly consistent with internal assessments of the bank’s long-term earnings power. A separate overview on key data for GS notes that Goldman believes a revenues growth rate of approximately 6 percent could translate into long-term earnings per share growth of more than 10 percent, driven by efficiency gains, operating leverage and improved profitability in banking, markets and asset and wealth management, according to TradingView on September 18, 2026. For long-term investors, this linkage between mid-single-digit revenue growth and double-digit EPS growth is a central part of the Goldman Sachs investment case.
Recent commentary on trading softness and revenue mix
The current risk narrative around Goldman Sachs stock has been reinforced by management commentary and market data highlighting near-term softness in trading activity. According to a news summary on September 18, 2026, GS shares fell by around 4 percent after Chief Executive Officer David Solomon indicated that trading activity was weaker in the current quarter, with fixed-income trading lagging equities and non-compensation costs rising by roughly USD 500 million sequentially, as highlighted by TradingView. The same overview notes that Goldman expects lower investment-related revenues in the third quarter following an unusually strong second quarter, as well as slightly higher credit loss provisions year over year due to idiosyncratic factors.
These comments matter because they point to a less favorable revenue mix in the third quarter compared with the first half of 2026. In the earlier period, strong investment banking fees and growing markets revenues offset volatility in other areas; in the current quarter, weaker trading and investment-related revenues could coincide with higher operating costs. For Goldman Sachs stock, this combination means that investors may see pressure on quarter-on-quarter profitability even if underlying client activity remains reasonably healthy.
Analyst stance and market positioning
Despite the short-term concerns, analyst sentiment on Goldman Sachs stock remains broadly constructive. Based on data compiled by MarketBeat, the company currently holds an average rating of Moderate Buy with a consensus price target of USD 1,062.86, according to MarketBeat on September 18, 2026. The Moderate Buy consensus and four-digit price target suggest that many analysts view current trading and cost headwinds as manageable within a positive long-term trajectory.
Institutional investor activity also underscores continued interest in the stock. According to MarketBeat on September 18, 2026, Nykredit A S disclosed a purchase of 139,970 shares of Goldman Sachs Group, Inc., adding to the institutional ownership base. The same filing notes that the company recently raised its quarterly dividend from USD 4.50 to USD 5.00 per share, an 11.1 percent increase, which implies an annualized dividend of USD 20.00 and a yield of about 2.1 percent at the time of that report. Historically, this dividend move reflects management’s confidence in earnings power, although investors now have to reconcile that signal with the more cautious near-term trading outlook.
Stock performance and valuation context
Measured over a 12-month horizon, Goldman Sachs stock has delivered a solid total return, but recent trading sessions have introduced more volatility as investors digest the Q3 outlook. As noted by The Globe and Mail, GS shares have advanced 16.6 percent over the past year, compared with 12.6 percent growth for the broader industry. This outperformance indicates that the market has rewarded Goldman Sachs for its strong first-half 2026 results and improved earnings expectations.
At the same time, the forward P/E multiple of 13.16 relative to an industry average of 13.43 shows that Goldman Sachs is valued roughly in line with peers, according to The Globe and Mail. For investors, this means that further upside from current levels will likely depend on Goldman’s ability to manage cost growth, sustain advisory and underwriting strength and navigate a more challenging trading environment without a significant hit to returns on equity.
Key risk factors and what to watch next
The main risk factors now priced into Goldman Sachs stock revolve around the interplay of revenues and costs in the upcoming quarters. Softer FICC trading could continue beyond the third quarter of 2026 if market volatility or client risk appetite declines, which would weigh on Global Banking & Markets performance, as highlighted by The Globe and Mail. At the same time, non-compensation expenses are expected to increase by more than USD 500 million sequentially in the third quarter, according to the same source, which could compress margins if revenue growth slows.
Another factor to monitor is the behavior of investment-related revenues and credit loss provisions. As TradingView notes, Goldman Sachs expects lower investment-related income in the third quarter after an unusually strong second quarter, as well as slightly higher year-over-year credit loss provisions due to idiosyncratic items. Both elements add another layer of uncertainty to near-term earnings trajectories, even if the longer-term consensus still points to EPS growth in 2026 and 2027.
Goldman Sachs stock price and market data
Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. is listed on the New York Stock Exchange under the ticker GS, with its share price quoted in US dollars. Per recent market data from US equity portals, GS shares closed at a level that reflects their 16.6 percent gain over the past year, as of mid-September 2026, with trading volume and market capitalization consistent with a large-cap S&P 500 constituent. The stock’s valuation of a forward P/E ratio of 13.16 relative to an industry average of 13.43, cited by The Globe and Mail, provides a quantitative benchmark for how the market is currently pricing its earnings outlook.
Goldman Sachs stock - key data
- Company: The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc.
- ISIN: US38141G1040
- Ticker: GS
- Trading venue: NYSE
- Sector / Industry: Financials / Investment Banking & Brokerage
- Index membership: S&P 500
