Ferrovial stock gets Citi upgrade as I-24 funding concerns ease

Ferrovial stock received a fresh analyst endorsement on Wednesday, November 4, after Citi upgraded the infrastructure group from neutral to buy. The report, published by Investing.com, focused on the funding structure of Ferrovial's Tennessee I-24 toll-road concession.

Funding Structure Supports The Case

Citi said market concerns had centered on the possibility that the USD 24.8 billion concession fee would require large upfront payments or a compressed construction schedule. The bank's assessment is that most payments will instead be made over the life of the concession, reducing pressure on near-term liquidity.

Citi estimates a 13.2% internal rate of return on equity for I-24, based on 75% debt financing and 25% equity funding. Ferrovial holds 65% of the project, leaving construction execution and cost control as important variables for the eventual return.

Projects Drive The Outlook

The bank expects earnings per share to grow about 13% annually from 2027 through 2030, compared with 5% for its peer group. Citi also raised its per-share earnings estimates for 2026 through 2028 by 8%, citing stronger expectations for construction and energy and currency effects.

Citi identified the commercial close of the I-285 East Express Lanes project in December and the financial close of I-24 in July 2027 as potential catalysts. It also pointed to a possible request for proposals for North Carolina's I-77 South project, where Ferrovial is shortlisted.

Ferrovial At A Glance

• Company: Ferrovial
• ISIN: NL0015001FS8
• Analyst action: Citi upgraded the stock from neutral to buy
• Project stake: 65% of I-24

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