Evonik stock faces Jefferies downgrade as takeover focus grows

Published on 11/12/2026 at 12:21 | Editorial responsibility: Rafael Müller, Editor-in-Chief AD HOC NEWS

Evonik stock traded at 20.94 euros on Lang & Schwarz at 12:15 CET on Thursday, November 12. Jefferies cut its rating as supply support fades.

Jefferies challenges Evonik outlook

Jefferies downgraded Evonik to Hold and cut its 2027 EBITDA forecast by 9 percent.
The brokerage sees fading support from Middle East supply disruptions and questions the company's 2029 return target.
BASF takeover interest remains a major factor for the share, while fourth-quarter results and 2027 guidance are due on March 4, 2027.

Evonik, DE000EVNK013, Illustration mit AI erstellt.

Jefferies downgraded Evonik Industries to Hold from Buy on November 11, 2026, while cutting its 2027 EBITDA forecast by 9 percent to below 2 billion euros. The brokerage said the earnings boost from Middle East supply disruptions is fading. The analysis was reported by Investing.com.

Evonik stock traded at 20.94 euros on Lang & Schwarz at 12:15 CET on Thursday, November 12.

Fading supply support pressures forecasts

Jefferies raised its price target to 21 euros from 20 euros, but its rating change signals a more cautious view of the earnings outlook. The brokerage said methionine and crosslinker prices benefited from disruptions linked to the Strait of Hormuz. Methionine prices have since fallen 43 percent from their April peak in China, 31 percent in Europe and 15 percent in the United States.

European gas prices have reached their highest level since November 2022, according to the analysis. Evonik is particularly exposed because 49 percent of its sales come from Europe, the Middle East and Africa, where energy-intensive production sites weigh on earnings sensitivity.

Returns remain central to valuation

Evonik's EBITDA is up 14 percent year to date, with Advanced Technologies contributing a 25 percent increase. Custom Solutions has remained approximately flat, leaving the transfer of cash between the businesses without a visible margin improvement so far.

Jefferies doubts that Evonik will reach its 11 percent return on capital employed target by 2029. Its forecast is 8.9 percent for 2029, compared with 6.1 percent in 2025, based on around 200 million euros of operating profit improvement and a 14 percent reduction in capital employed. The brokerage said a further 235 million euros of operating profit would be needed to close the remaining 210 basis points.

BASF keeps strategic uncertainty high

The brokerage also said near-term share-price movements depend more on potential engagement with BASF than on fundamentals. Reuters has reported that Evonik rejected BASF approaches at 22.15 euros and 24 euros per share. Investing.com reported that Evonik had not commented on the approaches. Jefferies considers an offer above 27 euros increasingly difficult to justify because German site agreements limit potential synergies.

For investors, the combination of takeover speculation and a more cautious earnings view creates two competing valuation drivers. A transaction could support the share price, while weaker specialty-chemical pricing and elevated European energy costs would challenge the standalone case.

Next results arrive in March

Evonik is scheduled to publish fourth-quarter results and 2027 guidance on March 4, 2027. Those figures should indicate whether the fading disruption benefit is being offset by pricing, volume growth or efficiency measures.

German equities are monitored against the DAX as the broad domestic market gauge.

More news and analyses on Evonik stock.