Costco Wholesale stock gains analyst support ahead fiscal Q4 earnings

Published on 09/17/2026 at 14:14 | Editorial responsibility: Rafael Müller, Editor-in-Chief AD HOC NEWS

Costco Wholesale stock trades below analyst target levels as of September 16, 2026, with Oppenheimer reaffirming Outperform and a USD 1,160 price target. The shares closed near USD 894, leaving roughly 20 percent room to the average Street target.

Fotorealistisches Warenhaus-Interior mit hohen Regalen und Einkaufswagen — Fotorealistisches Großhandelslager veranschaulicht Costco Wholesale Corp. US22160K1051 mit hohen Regalen und Einkaufswagen anschaulich, Illustration mit AI erstellt.

Costco Wholesale Corporation stock (ISIN US22160K1051) is heading into its upcoming fiscal fourth-quarter earnings report with solid analyst backing and a noticeable gap to consensus price targets as of September 16, 2026. According to MarketScreener on September 17, 2026, Costco shares last closed at USD 893.76 on the primary US listing, while the average analyst target price stands at USD 1,069.20, implying an upside of around 19.6 percent.

Analysts reaffirm bullish stance

The most recent catalyst for Costco Wholesale stock is a fresh round of analyst commentary ahead of the companys fiscal fourth-quarter results on September 24, 2026. As GuruFocus reported on September 16, 2026, Oppenheimer reaffirmed its Outperform rating on Costco and maintained a price target of USD 1,160 ahead of the fiscal fourth-quarter earnings announcement scheduled for September 24, 2026.

According to TipRanks on September 16, 2026, Bank of America Securities analyst Christopher Nardone reiterated his Buy rating on Costco on September 16, 2026 and set a price objective of USD 1,095. The same report notes that this target was trimmed from USD 1,200, reflecting a slightly more cautious view on margins but still pointing to further upside from the last closing price of USD 901.35.

Valuation gap and earnings expectations

The analyst actions underline a valuation gap that quantitative models also highlight. As GuruFocus stated on September 17, 2026, Costco shares traded at USD 893.74 versus a GF Value metric of USD 1,041.56, suggesting the stock was approximately 14.2 percent undervalued at that point. The same analysis assigns Costco a GF Score of 94 out of 100, with ratings of 8 out of 10 for financial strength and 9 out of 10 for profitability, underscoring the companys robust balance sheet and earnings power.

In terms of upcoming earnings, several sources point to a potentially tougher backdrop for the quarter. According to The Fly on September 16, 2026, Oppenheimer expects Costco Wholesale Corporations fiscal fourth-quarter core earnings to come in below consensus estimates, even while keeping its Outperform rating and a USD 1,160 price target. The firm views the Street earnings-per-share consensus of USD 6.55 for fiscal fourth-quarter 2026 as closer to a best-case scenario, especially once one-off tariff refunds are stripped out of results.

A separate analysis from Finimize on September 16, 2026, highlights that Costco is entering the earnings release with a sales mix that is supportive for shoppers but more challenging for margins. The report notes that the reliance on tariff-refund tailwinds in prior periods could leave core earnings weaker once these transient benefits fade, reinforcing the view that the USD 6.55 per-share consensus is ambitious.

Recent fundamental performance and outlook

While the very latest fiscal-quarter figures will only be known after the September 24, 2026 report, investors can still draw on consensus and valuation metrics to frame expectations. As Zacks reported on September 17, 2026, the consensus estimate for Costcos current financial-year sales implies year-over-year growth of 9.8 percent, while the consensus for earnings per share points to a 13.5 percent rise versus the prior fiscal year. For the next fiscal year, analysts project sales growth of 7.9 percent and earnings growth of 10.1 percent, suggesting that markets expect continued expansion despite margin concerns.

Those growth expectations are consistent with Costcos long-term positioning as a high-volume warehouse retailer with increasing digital capabilities. The Zacks report emphasizes Costcos e-commerce momentum as a key driver of its growth engine, helping the company sustain double-digit earnings growth projections even as it navigates a tougher margin mix. These consensus figures, anchored in the current fiscal year and the next, give investors a numerical framework to compare against the upcoming fiscal fourth-quarter print scheduled for September 24, 2026.

Stock price, market metrics and investor perspective

From a pure market-data standpoint, Costco Wholesale stock is trading below both analyst targets and valuation-model estimates but still near recent highs. According to MarketScreener on September 17, 2026, the shares closed at USD 893.76 on the US primary exchange on September 16, 2026. The same overview shows an average target price of USD 1,069.20 from 39 analysts, meaning the stock trades about 19.6 percent below the Street target at this closing level.

On valuation metrics, the GF Value comparison from GuruFocus on September 17, 2026 places Costco at USD 893.74 versus a GF Value of USD 1,041.56, roughly 14.2 percent below that fair-value estimate. In practical terms, this means the shares sit at a discount both to fundamental valuation models and to the average sell-side target, even as Oppenheimer and Bank of America have fine-tuned their expectations with a focus on margins and tariff-related headwinds.

For investors, the combination of a high GF Score of 94 out of 100, double-digit earnings growth projections for the current fiscal year, and a nearly 20 percent gap to the average analyst price target sets up fiscal fourth-quarter 2026 as a pivotal checkpoint. The key question is whether Costco can deliver core earnings close to the USD 6.55 consensus in the face of fading tariff-refund benefits and a customer-friendly but margin-pressuring sales mix. The answer will drive whether the current discount to valuation models and targets narrows or persists after the September 24, 2026 earnings release.