Commonwealth Bank stock faces deeper housing downturn

Commonwealth Bank stock is in focus after CBA economists cut their outlook for Australia's housing market and broader economy on November 3. Australian Broker reported that the bank expects a faster and broader property correction than previously forecast.

CBA now sees national dwelling values falling 14 percent from their March peak before stabilising. The five-capital-city average is forecast to decline 15 percent from its high. The bank's September forecast had called for a 9 percent national fall and a 10 percent decline across the capitals.

Housing correction widens

Brisbane and Perth face the sharpest revisions, with CBA forecasting peak-to-trough declines of about 18 percent in both markets, compared with earlier estimates of about 8 percent. Sydney's forecast was lifted to about 16 percent from about 13 percent, while Melbourne's was raised to about 13 percent from about 12 percent. Adelaide's forecast increased to about 13 percent from about 8 percent.

The revisions reflect a correction that CBA senior economist Trent Saunders described as faster and broader than expected. Australian Broker said the projected national decline would be the steepest in CBA's monthly housing series, which extends back 45 years, if the forecast is realised.

Market indicators point to weaker activity. The report cited Cotality figures showing national home values fell 1.2 percent in October, the seventh consecutive monthly decline, while sales over the past three months were 23 percent below the same period a year earlier. The five-capital-city market has also seen lower auction clearance rates and wider vendor discounts.

Slower economy raises pressure

The housing revision followed a broader CBA downgrade. As Yahoo Finance Australia reported, CBA now expects annual economic growth to slow to 1 percent by mid-2027, compared with its previous forecast of 1.8 percent. Growth is not expected to return to its trend rate of 2 percent until the second half of 2028.

CBA also lifted its forecast for peak unemployment to 5.1 percent from 4.8 percent. The bank's economists said weaker household spending would make the largest contribution to the downgrade as higher interest rates, inflation and a softer labour market weigh on incomes. For CBA, the outlook points to a more demanding environment for mortgage borrowers and household credit quality.

The bank expects housing prices to stabilise in the second half of 2027, supported by lower prices, higher rental yields, limited new supply and eventual interest-rate cuts. That recovery path remains sensitive to monetary policy: if rates stay higher for longer, the housing downturn could last beyond CBA's current timetable.

Commonwealth Bank stock traded at 102.31 euros on Lang & Schwarz at 09:45 CET on Monday, November 9, 2026. Investors can follow the real-time quote of Commonwealth Bank stock.

Commonwealth Bank profile

• Company: Commonwealth Bank of Australia
• ISIN: AU000000CBA7
• Home-market ticker: CBA
• Lang & Schwarz price: 102.31 euros at 09:45 CET on November 9, 2026
• Housing forecast: 14 percent national peak-to-trough decline
• Five-capital-city forecast: 15 percent peak-to-trough decline

The broader Australian market remains relevant for CBA because housing, interest rates and bank shares are closely linked to domestic economic expectations. See the latest Australian market developments.

More news and analysis on Commonwealth Bank stock is available in the Commonwealth Bank stock topic.