BRI Danareksa cuts target for Merdeka Battery Materials stock

Published on 10/13/2026 at 09:05 | Editorial responsibility: Rafael Müller, Editor-in-Chief AD HOC NEWS

First-half revenue rose 66.92 percent to USD 1.05 billion. For Merdeka Battery Materials stock this means USD 54.43 million profit, up 830.12 percent.

BRI Danareksa cut its Merdeka Battery Materials target amid lower downstream margin assumptions and higher operating costs.
First-half 2026 revenue rose 66.92 percent to USD 1.05 billion, while net profit reached USD 54.43 million.
First-half nickel ore production increased 121 percent to 15.2 million wet metric tons.
The company is advancing its nickel processing and battery-materials pipeline through 2026.

Merdeka Battery Materials, ID1000188303, Illustration mit AI erstellt.

Merdeka Battery Materials (ID1000188303) delivered USD 54.43 million in net profit attributable to shareholders in the first half of 2026, up 830.12 percent year on year. On September 29, 2026, BRI Danareksa cut its profit estimates and price target as downstream margins weakened and operating costs rose, according to Investor.id.

The target was cut

BRI Danareksa reduced its net-profit estimates for 2026, 2027 and 2028 by 34.20 percent, 63.90 percent and 68.60 percent, respectively. The research cited lower assumed average selling prices for downstream products and higher costs as the reasons for the revision, while the target price was also cut, Investor.id reported on September 29, 2026.

The estimate change creates a sharper test for the companys transition from volume growth to profitable downstream processing. In the second quarter of 2026, revenue reached USD 592.60 million, up 30.00 percent from the previous quarter and 127.00 percent from the same quarter of 2025, according to Investor.id.

What does the profit surge mean?

First-half 2026 revenue increased 66.92 percent to USD 1.05 billion, while EBITDA rose 306.00 percent to USD 310.60 million. Net profit growth was even faster, reaching USD 54.43 million from USD 5.85 million in the first half of 2025, according to Investortrust.id. That gap between revenue growth and profit growth explains why operating costs and product margins matter as much as production volume.

Production supports the pipeline

Nickel ore production climbed 121.00 percent to 15.20 million wet metric tons in the first half of 2026, while ore shipments increased 60.00 percent to 12.40 million wet metric tons. The companys investor-relations page lists its September 28, 2026 presentation on first-half results and its August 1, 2026 second-quarter activities report, Merdeka Battery Materials states.

For the battery-materials strategy, the same report described commissioning activity at Sulawesi Nickel Cobalt, with initial production targeted for the second half of 2026. That expansion gives the company a volume and processing pathway, while the revised estimates show that margin conversion remains the central financial question.

Margin conversion remains central

Merdeka Battery Materials is listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange under MBMA, with Materials as its sector classification. The company combines nickel ore extraction, smelting and higher-value processing, so the next valuation debate is likely to weigh the 830.12 percent profit increase against the 34.20 percent reduction in the 2026 profit estimate.