BOC forecasts China Telecom profit drop: what it means for China Telecom stock

Published on 10/13/2026 at 09:52 | Editorial responsibility: Rafael Müller, Editor-in-Chief AD HOC NEWS

BOC keeps 2026 capex guidance at CNY 73.00 billion. For China Telecom stock this means 118.80 EFLOPS of capacity.

Key points in brief

BOC International forecasts China Telecom net profit of CNY 6.60 billion for the third quarter of 2026, down 13.50 percent year over year.
China Telecom reported CNY 259.0 billion in first-half 2026 operating revenue, down 3.90 percent year over year.
TeleAgent passed 1.50 million registered users and 200,000 daily active users by October 9, 2026.
The company is scheduled to report third-quarter results on October 23, 2026.
China Telecom stock was trading at HKD 4.69 on HKEX on October 13, 2026, with market capitalization of HKD 537.5 billion.

China Telecom, CNE1000002V2, Illustration mit AI erstellt.

China Telecom (ISIN CNE1000002V2) is expected to post CNY 6.60 billion in third-quarter 2026 net profit, down 13.50 percent year over year, according to Futu on October 13, 2026. The report keeps China Telecom's 2026 revenue and earnings forecasts unchanged while highlighting value-added tax pressure and rising computing infrastructure investment.

Three milestones shape the story

On August 20, 2026, China Telecom released first-half results showing CNY 259.0 billion in operating revenue, down 3.90 percent year over year, and CNY 19.60 billion in net profit attributable to shareholders, down 14.90 percent, according to Futu. On September 28, 2026, the same report noted that cloud revenue reached CNY 61.80 billion, up 7.80 percent year over year, while computing-power network investment rose 97.00 percent year over year to CNY 15.40 billion in the first half.

On October 9, 2026, China Telecom's TeleAgent passed 1.50 million registered users and 200,000 daily active users, up from 27,000 registered users in mid-June, as ET Net reported. The contrast is central to the stock story: legacy telecom revenue is under pressure, while artificial intelligence and cloud services are expanding from a smaller base.

What does the forecast mean?

BOC International expects third-quarter EBITDA margin of 28.50 percent and AIDC revenue of CNY 38.00 billion for fiscal year 2026, with AIDC revenue growth of 10.00 percent year over year. The firm also says computing capacity has reached 118.80 EFLOPS with utilization at 94.00 percent, giving the investment program a measurable operating scale.

China Telecom has maintained full-year capital expenditure guidance of CNY 73.00 billion. Computing-power projects represented 48.00 percent of total capital expenditure in the first half, above the original 35.00 percent target share, according to Futu. That mix makes execution and monetization more important than headline subscriber growth for the next results cycle.

Results date is October 23

China Telecom is scheduled to publish its third-quarter 2026 results on October 23, 2026, with two analysts forecasting average earnings per share of CNY 0.063 and revenue of CNY 124.81 billion, according to finanzen.at on October 8, 2026. The estimate puts the upcoming report at the intersection of falling reported profit, steady comparable-business targets and expanding AI infrastructure.

On October 13, 2026, China Telecom stock was trading at HKD 4.69 on HKEX at 3:36 p.m. HKT. The same market snapshot showed a 52-week range of HKD 4.24 to HKD 6.08 and market capitalization of HKD 537.5 billion.