Berenberg upgrade lifts Antofagasta stock on copper pullback

Published on 09/15/2026 at 23:09 | Editorial responsibility: Rafael Müller, Editor-in-Chief AD HOC NEWS

Berenberg upgraded Antofagasta stock to Buy on September 15, 2026, keeping its 4,400 pence price target after a copper-driven share selloff. The shares recently traded around 3,586 pence, about 23 percent below the target, highlighting upside potential.

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Antofagasta stock (ISIN GB0000456144) is back in the spotlight after Berenberg upgraded the London-listed copper producer to Buy on September 15, 2026, while maintaining a price target of 4,400 pence per share. According to Investing.com, the upgrade follows a sharp pullback in copper prices that has pushed the shares to what the bank sees as an attractive valuation.

Broker upgrade highlights valuation gap

Berenberg moved its recommendation on Antofagasta from Hold to Buy, arguing that the recent sector weakness has opened up a compelling entry point in the stock. As The Armchair Trader reported on September 15, 2026, the bank kept its price target at 4,400 pence, which represented roughly 23 percent upside versus Antofagasta’s closing price of 3,586 pence on September 14, 2026.

The valuation case is underpinned by metrics that Berenberg sees as conservative relative to Antofagasta’s growth profile. According to the upgrade note summarized by Investing.com, the shares are trading at around 2.37 times net asset value and 7.8 times the broker’s estimated 2027 EBITDA, levels the bank considers undemanding for a high-quality copper producer.

Copper volumes and cash flow expectations

Beyond near-term valuation, Berenberg’s thesis rests on anticipated growth in Antofagasta’s copper output over the next few years. The analysts expect copper production volumes to rise by about 27 percent from 646,000 tonnes in 2026 to 818,000 tonnes by 2028, supported by project ramp-ups and operational improvements across the group’s portfolio. This volume expansion is a key driver of the bank’s expectation that the stock will be re-rated as higher throughput and economies of scale begin to show in earnings and cash flow.

The broker also points to a marked improvement in free cash flow once a current investment phase peaks. As summarized in the international coverage on Investing.com, Berenberg forecasts that Antofagasta’s free cash flow could increase from about USD 700 million in 2026, corresponding to a yield of roughly 1.4 percent, to around USD 3.1 billion in 2027, implying a yield of 6.2 percent. For investors, this projected jump in cash generation is central: it would give the group more flexibility on dividends, debt reduction and potential growth investments while supporting the case for a higher valuation multiple.

Share price performance and market reaction

The upgrade comes against the backdrop of a notable decline in Antofagasta’s share price over the past week as copper prices fell. According to Investing.com, Antofagasta shares have dropped about 12 percent over the last week, reflecting broader weakness across copper miners as the metal’s spot price retreated. The bank’s unchanged price target therefore implies mid-teens to low-20s percent upside depending on the exact entry price, underscoring the degree to which the recent correction has widened the gap between the share price and Berenberg’s fundamental view.

While the London Stock Exchange quote for Antofagasta is the primary reference for most investors, the stock is also tracked via over-the-counter instruments such as the ANFGF line in the United States. On September 15, 2026, Antofagasta’s ANFGF listing was quoted at USD 48.85, with a previous close of USD 48.75 and a 52-week range from USD 31.15 to USD 61.72, according to data from Seeking Alpha. Over the past year, that instrument has gained about 61.42 percent, highlighting how strong the stock’s longer-term momentum remains despite the latest pullback.

Risks linked to copper price and sector volatility

Even as the broker upgrade shines a positive light on Antofagasta stock, Berenberg’s call implicitly acknowledges that copper price volatility is a central risk for the investment case. The recent 12 percent decline in the shares over a week, as reported by Investing.com, was primarily driven by a copper selloff rather than company-specific news. This illustrates how sensitive the stock remains to macro drivers such as global industrial demand, Chinese activity and the trajectory of real interest rates, which influence commodity prices and mining-sector sentiment.

Sector-wide moves can also amplify the volatility of individual miners. Broader coverage of United Kingdom equities on MarketWatch on September 15, 2026, pointed to a decline in UK stocks after a short period of gains, as rising bond yields and lingering concerns around global growth weighed on risk assets. In such an environment, cyclical names like Antofagasta may see their share prices move more sharply than the broader market.

Stock price level and investor takeaway

For investors assessing Antofagasta stock around mid-September 2026, the key numbers cluster around valuation, price levels and growth expectations. On the London market, the shares most recently closed at 3,586 pence on September 14, 2026, while Berenberg’s target of 4,400 pence suggests a potential gain of roughly 23 percent if the broker’s scenario materializes, as highlighted by The Armchair Trader. On the US ANFGF line, a price of USD 48.85 on September 15, 2026 sits comfortably within the 52-week range and about 21 percent below the 52-week high of USD 61.72, based on the data cited by Seeking Alpha.

The combination of a recent 12 percent share price decline over a week, a broker upgrade to Buy with an unchanged 4,400 pence target and expectations for copper volumes to climb by around 27 percent between 2026 and 2028 provides a concise framework for thinking about the stock. Antofagasta remains highly exposed to copper price swings, but if production growth and the projected jump in free cash flow from about USD 700 million in 2026 to USD 3.1 billion in 2027 play out as Berenberg expects, the current valuation multiples of roughly 2.37 times net asset value and 7.8 times 2027 EBITDA could leave room for further re-rating.