BAT stock fell 0.60 percent as guidance stayed cautious

Published on 10/05/2026 at 21:02 | Editorial responsibility: Rafael Müller, Editor-in-Chief AD HOC NEWS

BAT stock was last at GBp 3,960 on October 2, 2026, as FY26 revenue growth stayed in a 3-5 percent range. New Category margin is targeted at 30 percent by 2030.

Isometrische 3D-Illustration einer Lieferkette von Feld über Fabrik bis zum Vertriebszentrum — British American Tobacco plc (GB0002875804) veranschaulicht die gesamte Wertschöpfungskette als isometrische 3D-Grafik-Darstellung, Illustration mit AI erstellt.

BAT stock (ISIN GB0002875804) was last at GBp 3,960 on October 2, 2026, down 0.60 percent on the London Stock Exchange. The company had just outlined its Horizon 2030 strategy, keeping fiscal 2026 guidance toward the lower end of its existing ranges.

Guidance stays at the lower end

According to BAT on September 29, 2026, fiscal 2026 revenue growth remains on track for the lower end of a 3-5 percent range.

The same release places adjusted profit from operations growth toward the lower end of a 4-6 percent range, while adjusted diluted EPS growth is expected toward the middle of a 5-8 percent range. All three figures are stated at constant exchange rates and adjusted for Canada.

New Categories carry the plan

BAT expects New Category revenue to grow at a mid-teens rate through 2030. The company also targets a New Category contribution margin of at least 30 percent by that year, making margin expansion as important as sales growth.

The strategy puts vaping, heated products and modern oral nicotine at the center of BAT's transformation, while the traditional combustibles business remains a source of cash returns. BAT also expects to be within its 2.0-2.5x target leverage range by the end of fiscal 2026, according to the September 29 release.

Analysts see room above GBp 3,960

MarketBeat reported on October 1, 2026, that six brokerages assigned BAT a Moderate Buy consensus, with four Buy ratings, one Hold and one Sell. The average 12-month target was GBp 4,858.33, putting the target 22.68 percent above the GBp 3,960 reference price.

Broker views are constructive but not uniform. MarketBeat said Jefferies raised its target from GBp 5,500 to GBp 5,600 while keeping a Buy rating. The main counterweight is execution risk: BAT's stated growth path depends on faster adoption of New Categories and continued progress despite regulatory and currency pressure.

BAT stock stays below its target

BAT's market capitalization was GBP 85.8 billion as of October 5, 2026. Its last quoted LSE value of GBp 3,960 on October 2, 2026, gives investors a clear reference point for measuring the gap between the market price and the average analyst target.