BAT outlines Horizon 2030 as Jefferies raises target for BAT stock

Published on 10/06/2026 at 11:51 | Editorial responsibility: Rafael Müller, Editor-in-Chief AD HOC NEWS

Jefferies kept Buy and lifted its target to GBp 5,600 on September 30, 2026. BAT stock costs EUR 47.47 on October 6, 2026 after EUR 47.11.

Schwarzweiß-Reportagefoto von Feldarbeitern bei der Ernte auf landwirtschaftlicher Anbaufläche — British American Tobacco plc (GB0002875804) zeigt dokumentarisch Landwirtschaft und Ernteprozesse in Schwarzweiß, Illustration mit AI erstellt.

BAT (ISIN GB0002875804) stood at EUR 47.47 at Lang & Schwarz on October 6, 2026 at 11:43 a.m. CEST, versus a prior close of EUR 47.11 and a daily change of plus 0.76 percent. At its September 29, 2026 Capital Markets Day, BAT outlined its Horizon 2030 strategy, while Jefferies raised its target from GBp 5,500.00 to GBp 5,600.00 and kept a Buy rating on September 30, 2026.

Horizon 2030 targets higher margins

BAT expects New Category revenue to grow by a mid-teens percentage through 2030 and contribution margin to reach at least 30.00 percent by then, according to its September 29, 2026 release. Reuters reported that the contribution margin was 13.30 percent in June 2026, making the 2030 target 16.70 percentage points higher than that reference level.

The strategy puts nicotine pouches and other smokeless products at the center of BAT's growth model. Reuters said BAT expects nicotine pouch industry revenue to triple between 2025 and 2030, while global tobacco industry volumes are expected to decline 2.50 percent over the same period.

Guidance remains near the lower end

BAT kept its full-year 2026 framework at 3.00 percent to 5.00 percent revenue growth and 4.00 percent to 6.00 percent adjusted profit from operations growth, both at constant rates. Adjusted diluted earnings per share growth is expected toward the middle of a 5.00 percent to 8.00 percent range, while leverage is targeted at 2.00 to 2.50 times by year-end, according to the company release.

The near-term tension is clear: the long-term strategy depends on faster smokeless expansion, while BAT still expects 2026 delivery toward the lower end of its revenue and adjusted profit ranges. The release also identifies regulatory changes, illicit trade, litigation and foreign-exchange exposure as risks to the forward-looking plan.

Analyst target moves to GBp 5,600

Jefferies said the Capital Markets Day showed a reassuring development and lifted its target by GBp 100.00, from GBp 5,500.00 to GBp 5,600.00, while retaining Buy. That target action gives the strategy a direct valuation reference, but the rating remains tied to execution in new categories and the U.S. business.

BAT stock stays above prior close

BAT stock stood at EUR 47.47 at Lang & Schwarz on October 6, 2026 at 11:43 a.m. CEST, compared with the EUR 47.11 prior close at Lang & Schwarz on October 5, 2026. The further course of trading is shown by the continuously updated real-time quote of BAT stock.