Antofagasta stock weighs strong H1 against a lower output outlook

Published on 10/04/2026 at 23:15 | Editorial responsibility: Rafael Müller, Editor-in-Chief AD HOC NEWS

Antofagasta stock was last at GBp 3,802 on October 2 after a 3.04 percent gain. H1 EBITDA rose 27 percent, but copper guidance fell to 625,000-655,000 tonnes.

Moderner Glas-Bürowolkenkratzer inmitten der Skyline im Finanzviertel von London — Architektur-Render eines modernen Glasturms in London repräsentiert den Firmensitz von Antofagasta plc GB0000456144 stilvoll, Illustration mit AI erstellt.

Antofagasta stock (ISIN GB0000456144) was last at GBp 3,802 on the London Stock Exchange at 4:36 p.m. London time on October 2, 2026, up 3.04 percent from the prior close. The central issue for investors is the contrast between a 27 percent H1 EBITDA increase and a lower full-year copper production outlook.

Profit growth meets lower output guidance

Antofagasta reported adjusted H1 2026 EBITDA of USD 2.84 billion, up 27 percent year over year, while its EBITDA margin reached 63.4 percent. The figures also included adjusted earnings per share of USD 0.859, according to Parqet in its H1 2026 earnings summary dated August 13, 2026.

The operating trade-off is visible in guidance. Antofagasta reduced its full-year 2026 copper production range to 625,000-655,000 tonnes from 650,000-700,000 tonnes after severe weather disrupted Los Pelambres, as Fastmarkets reported on October 1, 2026. Centinela copper-in-concentrate production fell 13 percent year over year to 69,700 tonnes in the first half.

Berenberg turns more constructive

Berenberg upgraded Antofagasta from Hold to Buy on September 14, 2026, while leaving its GBp 4,400 price target unchanged, according to Sharecast. The bank expects copper volumes to rise from 646,000 tonnes in 2026 to 818,000 tonnes in 2028, supported by the Los Pelambres grades and the Centinela second concentrator.

The broader analyst picture is less decisive. Investing.com lists a Neutral consensus from 22 analysts, an average GBp 3,949.27 target, a high target of GBp 5,000.1510574 and a low target of GBp 2,545.84365559. The average target lies 3.87 percent above the October 2 price, keeping the consensus close to the current market level.

Next results arrive October 14

The next measurable checkpoint is the third-quarter operating update. Marketscreener lists October 14, 2026, for the publication of Antofagasta's Q3 2026 operating results. That release should show whether production is moving toward the lower guidance range after the weather disruption.

Antofagasta stock stays below yearly high

Antofagasta stock was last at GBp 3,802 on October 2, 2026, with a 52-week range of GBp 2,500 to GBp 4,475 and a market capitalization of GBP 37.5 billion. Trading volume reached 868,829 shares, leaving the stock 15.05 percent below its 52-week high.