American Express stock outlook rises as one-off gain clouds profit
Published on 11/06/2026 at 12:52 | Editorial responsibility: Rafael Müller, Editor-in-Chief AD HOC NEWSOutlook improves as revenue slows
- American Express raised its 2026 earnings outlook after third-quarter revenue reached a record.
- A one-time gain from the Global Business Travel Group stake sale accounts for much of the reported increase.
- Slower revenue growth and the late-January fourth-quarter report are the next key investor tests.
American Express raised its 2026 earnings outlook after reporting a strong third quarter on Oct. 23, but the quality of that increase remains central for investors. The company also faces a slower revenue trend and a late-January report that should set the next major direction for expectations.
According to Yahoo Finance, third-quarter revenue rose 9 percent year over year to a record 20.1 billion US dollars. Adjusted earnings per share increased 13 percent to 4.68 US dollars, while billed business rose 8 percent to 454.0 billion US dollars.
One-off gain lifts reported outlook
Reported earnings per share reached 5.42 US dollars. The gap to adjusted earnings reflects a 982 million US dollar pretax gain from the sale of American Express's stake in Global Business Travel Group. The gain adds substantially to the reported profit picture without representing recurring card activity.
Management lifted its 2026 earnings-per-share outlook to 18.30 to 18.60 US dollars from 17.30 to 17.90 US dollars and maintained its expectation for 10 percent revenue growth. On an adjusted basis, the new range is 17.60 to 17.90 US dollars after the effect of the gain and a restructuring charge. The adjusted range has a higher floor than the previous forecast, while its upper end is unchanged.
The underlying operating picture is mixed. The net write-off rate fell to 1.8 percent from 1.9 percent a year earlier, supporting the credit profile. At the same time, revenue growth slowed from 10 percent in the second quarter to 9 percent in the third quarter, while commercial spending rose only 3 percent, according to the Yahoo Finance analysis.
Revenue growth becomes the key test
Analysts cited in the analysis expect normalized earnings per share of 17.82 US dollars for 2026, followed by 20.20 US dollars in 2027 and 23.21 US dollars in 2028. That outlook implies that future share performance will depend increasingly on sustained earnings growth rather than on a higher valuation multiple.
American Express stock traded at 288.35 euros on Lang & Schwarz at 12:43 CET on Friday, November 6, 2026. Investors can follow the real-time quote of American Express stock.
The next major company event is the fourth-quarter report expected in late January. American Express typically provides its first outlook for the following year with that release, making revenue momentum, billed business and credit quality the main operating indicators to watch.
American Express company facts
- Company: American Express
- ISIN: US0258161092
- Home exchange: New York Stock Exchange
- Lang & Schwarz quote: 288.35 euros at 12:43 CET on November 6, 2026
- Third-quarter revenue: 20.1 billion US dollars, up 9 percent year over year
- Adjusted third-quarter earnings per share: 4.68 US dollars, up 13 percent year over year
US equity markets remain the broader setting for American Express stock, with the S&P 500 market reports providing the wider investor backdrop.
