Almonty Nears a Pivotal Moment as Board Decision Looms and First Production Data Beckons

Almonty Industries nears reverse split deadline as Sangdong mine ramps up, molybdenum revenue floor secures $234M, and China's tungsten export squeeze drives prices higher.

The clock is ticking for Almonty Industries. By the end of today, the board must decide whether to push ahead with a reverse stock split — a move shareholders have already approved — or let the plan lapse. That decision sets the stage for a defining quarter, with the company's first concrete production figures from the Sangdong mine due in May and a shareholder meeting scheduled for early June.

A Revenue Floor from Molybdenum

While much of the market's attention is fixed on the wolfram supply squeeze, Almonty has quietly locked in a separate revenue stream that provides a cushion against any downturn in tungsten prices. A molybdenum supply agreement, set to take effect later this year, includes a guaranteed minimum price that ensures annual revenue of at least $234 million. That figure is not a forecast but a contractual floor, giving the company a stable income base independent of the wolfram market's gyrations.

The company ended fiscal 2025 with $268 million in cash, raised through equity offerings on the Nasdaq, providing ample runway to fund the ramp-up at Sangdong and the next phase of expansion.

Sangdong's High-Grade Ore and Tight Market Dynamics

The Sangdong mine in South Korea completed its initial commissioning phase at the end of March 2026. The facility is now processing 640,000 tonnes of ore annually, producing around 2,300 tonnes of tungsten concentrate. At full capacity, Sangdong is expected to meet roughly 40% of global tungsten demand outside China.

The ore grade stands at approximately 0.51% tungsten trioxide — about three times the global average. That margin advantage gives Almonty significant cost protection even if prices soften. Analysts at DA Davidson anticipate the mine will reach full commercial capacity by the second quarter of 2026, with a second phase planned for 2027 that would double processing capacity to 1.2 million tonnes per year.

China's Export Squeeze Intensifies

The broader market backdrop is working in Almonty's favour. The benchmark price for ammonium paratungstate (APT) has climbed from around $1,944 per tonne in February to roughly $2,526 per tonne in April 2026.

The catalyst: Beijing replaced its quota system with a state-controlled licensing regime at the start of 2025. Only 15 approved companies are now permitted to export. The impact has been dramatic — APT exports fell from 782 tonnes in 2024 to just 243 tonnes in the first eleven months of 2025, and by early 2026 they had all but ground to a halt.

The shortages are now rippling through the semiconductor industry. Japanese suppliers have warned Samsung and SK Hynix that their inventories of tungsten hexafluoride — essential for 3D NAND production — could run dry as early as this summer. There is no practical substitute. Analysts at BMO expect a further supply deficit in 2026.

Pentagon Mandate and Tariff Exemptions Secure Demand

From January 1, 2027, US defence contractors will be required to source tungsten exclusively from non-Chinese suppliers. Almonty's tungsten ores and concentrates have been explicitly exempted from the new US retaliatory tariffs. The company also holds a long-term offtake agreement with Global Tungsten & Powders, a leading US processor based in Pennsylvania.

The Gentung project in Montana is expected to be ready for production in the second half of 2026, which would mark the first domestic tungsten output in the United States in over a decade.

Institutional Interest and Analyst Confidence

Investor sentiment has shifted markedly. The number of institutional funds holding Almonty shares jumped by more than 55% to 107. Three research houses collectively rate the stock a "Strong Buy," with price targets from Texas Capital and DA Davidson reaching as high as $25.

The stock currently trades at C$26.85, having gained roughly 123% since the start of the year. Revenue rose 39% in the fourth quarter of 2025, though the company booked a large net loss driven primarily by accounting effects.

What Comes Next

The immediate focus is on the board's decision on the reverse stock split, which could be implemented at a ratio of up to five-to-one. Management has argued the move would make the shares more attractive to institutional investors, many of which avoid stocks trading below $5.

The quarterly report in May will deliver the first concrete production data from Sangdong's ramp-up phase. Then on June 8, the annual general meeting will provide a platform for management to outline plans for doubling the mine's capacity and integrating US operations. For now, today's board decision offers the clearest signal yet of where Almonty sees its capital structure heading.