Aljazira sees Maaden earnings falling 14.2 percent for Maaden stock
Published on 10/16/2026 at 09:56 | Editorial responsibility: Rafael Müller, Editor-in-Chief AD HOC NEWSForecast and operating split
- Aljazira Capital projected SAR 1,893 million in Maaden net profit for the third quarter of 2026, down 14.2 percent year on year.
- Aluminium revenue rose 49.00 percent to USD 1.01 billion in the second quarter of 2026.
- Maaden stock was last at SAR 60.00 on the Saudi Exchange on October 15, 2026 at 3:18 p.m. AST.
Aljazira Capital projected Maaden net profit of SAR 1,893 million for the third quarter of 2026, a 14.2 percent year-on-year decline. The forecast gives Maaden stock a clear earnings test before the next reporting date.
Forecast points to weaker earnings
In its October 2026 Forecasts Report, Aljazira Capital estimated Maaden revenue at SAR 10,763 million for the third quarter. The same table put forecast earnings per share at SAR 0.49 and prospective fiscal-year 2026 price-to-earnings at 31.2.
The estimate contrasts with Maaden's stronger second-quarter operating mix. Aluminium revenue increased 49.00 percent year on year to USD 1.01 billion, while the realized aluminium price rose 51.00 percent to USD 3,915 per tonne, according to AlCircle.
Three events shape the story
The recent chronology shows why the forecast matters. On August 9, 2026, Maaden reported second-quarter revenue of USD 2.9 billion, up 16.00 percent year on year, as reported by Discovery Alert. On October 7, 2026, AlCircle reported aluminium revenue of USD 1.01 billion and production of 242,000 tonnes. On October 15, 2026, shareholders approved a Saudi Aramco mining venture with initial paid-up capital of SAR 197.50 million, according to Argaam.
What does the forecast mean?
The key issue is the gap between growth in aluminium and pressure elsewhere. Discovery Alert reported that gold earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization rose 46.00 percent to USD 334 million in the second quarter, while phosphate earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization fell 49.00 percent to USD 328 million. That split makes the SAR 1,893 million third-quarter estimate a test of diversification rather than a simple continuation of aluminium growth.
Next reporting date
AlCircle identifies November 3, 2026 as Maaden's next earnings report date. The company will need to show whether higher aluminium pricing can offset weaker phosphate conditions and volume disruption.
Saudi quote and investor context
Maaden was last at SAR 60.00 on the Saudi Exchange on October 15, 2026 at 3:18 p.m. AST. Its market capitalization was SAR 232.9 billion on that date, while the 52-week range was SAR 54.90 to SAR 79.90.
Market context: Latest market reports.
