AB Foods stock falls as Kepler cuts rating and Primark guidance weighs

Published on 09/16/2026 at 17:40 | Editorial responsibility: Rafael Müller, Editor-in-Chief AD HOC NEWS

AB Foods stock comes under pressure after Kepler Cheuvreux cut its rating and lowered the price target on September 16, 2026. The move follows a Primark trading update pointing to a 3 percent drop in fourth quarter like-for-like sales.

Lebensmittelfabrik mit Getreidefeldern, Symbolbild Associated British Foods plc GB0006731235 — Associated British Foods plc GB0006731235 zeigt fotorealistisch eine moderne Lebensmittelfabrik mit Verpackungslinie und Getreidefeldern, Illustration mit AI erstellt.

Associated British Foods stock (ISIN GB0006731235) is facing selling pressure after Kepler Cheuvreux cut its rating and lowered the price target to 1,900 pence on September 16, 2026, following a cautious Primark trading update.

Analyst downgrade hits AB Foods stock

According to Investing.com on September 16, 2026, Kepler Cheuvreux downgraded Associated British Foods from Buy to Hold and reduced its price target from 2,100 pence to 1,900 pence, signalling reduced upside for the shares in the near term.

The downgrade followed a recent business update from the group, in which management highlighted that Primark like-for-like sales in the fourth quarter to September 12, 2026 are expected to decline by 3 percent, while total Primark sales for the full fiscal year are still projected to grow by around 2 percent thanks to new stores and franchise openings, which together add about 5 percentage points to growth, as reported by Investing.com Turkey.

Primark trends and group guidance

In its September 10, 2026 trading update, the company indicated that Primark like-for-like sales for the fourth quarter to September 12, 2026 are expected to fall by 3 percent, with regional differences: sales in the United Kingdom and Ireland are forecast to rise by 0.4 percent, whereas continental Europe is projected to see a 4.3 percent decline, according to the summary cited by Investing.com Hong Kong.

Despite the softer like-for-like trends, Associated British Foods has guided that adjusted operating profit for the 2025-26 fiscal year should be broadly in line with market expectations and that adjusted earnings per share are likely to come in slightly above consensus, as highlighted in the same report from Investing.com Hong Kong.

Kepler Cheuvreux, in its detailed analysis, now forecasts fiscal year 2026 group sales of GBP 19.38 billion, adjusted EBITDA of GBP 2.43 billion, adjusted EBIT of GBP 1.50 billion and adjusted net profit of GBP 1.07 billion, compared with higher previous estimates, after reducing its 2026 sales forecast by 1.1 percent and its adjusted EBIT forecast by 2.5 percent, as reported by Investing.com Turkey.

Sugar business outlook adds risk

Beyond Primark, Kepler sees headwinds in the group sugar operations, projecting an adjusted operating loss of between GBP 70 million and GBP 170 million in fiscal year 2027 and up to GBP 60 million in fiscal year 2026, a more severe outlook than previously anticipated, according to the analysis summarised by Investing.com Turkey.

The company itself had indicated in its September 10, 2026 update that the sugar business is trending towards the upper end of a GBP 25 million to GBP 60 million adjusted operating loss range for fiscal year 2026, reinforcing the message that this division will act as a drag on group profitability, as referenced by Investing.com Turkey.

Kepler also lowered its adjusted earnings per share forecasts by 2.0 percent for fiscal year 2026 and by 15.7 percent for fiscal year 2027, underscoring a more cautious stance on the companys medium-term profitability profile, as detailed by Investing.com Turkey.

Stock reaction and valuation context

The Kepler downgrade and the Primark guidance have weighed heavily on the share price, with reports indicating that AB Foods stock dropped by more than 9 percent in early London trading on the day the update was released, as noted by Investing.com Turkey.

Per Keplers estimates, Associated British Foods carries a market capitalization of about GBP 13 billion, which investors can set against the forecast GBP 19.38 billion in fiscal year 2026 sales and GBP 1.07 billion in adjusted net profit to gauge the valuation multiples implied by the new 1,900 pence price target, based on data cited by Investing.com Turkey.

AB Foods stock level and investor perspective

On the London Stock Exchange, AB Foods stock most recently traded below the new 1,900 pence target, marking a clear step down from the previous 2,100 pence target level and reflecting the markets reassessment of the Primark growth trajectory and sugar division risks as of mid September 2026.