Thin Trading Conditions Exacerbate Silver’s Decline

Silber Preis XC0009653103

A pronounced lack of market depth is creating volatile conditions for silver. The absence of key Asian participants due to Lunar New Year closures has drained crucial liquidity from the marketplace. This environment amplifies price movements, meaning even modest orders can have an outsized impact on the spot price.

Sellers are currently dominating the action, with buy-side interest from Asia largely absent. This dynamic is extending a recent phase of weakness that has gathered momentum over recent sessions.

Major financial hubs across China, Hong Kong, Singapore, Taiwan, and South Korea are shut for the holiday. Reduced participation translates directly to thinner order books, wider bid-ask spreads, and a more jagged price chart.

Several core factors are driving the current sentiment:
* A significant drop in liquidity as multiple Asian markets observe the Lunar New Year.
* A firmer U.S. dollar, which raises the cost of dollar-denominated silver for buyers holding other currencies.
* Ongoing market uncertainty while participants await clearer signals from the U.S. Federal Reserve regarding the potential path of interest rates into 2026.

The strength of the greenback represents a classic headwind for commodities priced in dollars, as it dampens international demand. Meanwhile, the interest rate outlook remains a pivotal question. While recently softer U.S. inflation data briefly fueled speculation about earlier rate cuts, the market is still waiting for concrete guidance from the Fed on whether—and when—benchmark rates will be lowered in 2026.

Market Corrects After January's Speculative Run

The present downturn continues a corrective phase that began after a speculatively driven rally in early January. Following that upward surge, the market has been engaged in a period of position unwinding, which is typical after a influx of short-term speculative capital.

The price data reflects this sustained pressure. Silver is currently quoted at $72.17, representing a decline of approximately 28.78% over the preceding 30 days. This places it notably below the 50-day moving average of $85.45.

The weekly trend aligns with this picture, showing a drop of 10.50% over the last 7 days.

Geopolitical Talks Offer No Immediate Support

Beyond monetary policy and currency effects, traders are also monitoring geopolitical developments. Talks between the U.S. and Iran are scheduled in Geneva, alongside negotiations related to the war in Ukraine. While such events can generate market-moving impulses, they have so far failed to counteract today's selling pressure.

Looking further ahead to 2026, one reference point suggests a cautiously optimistic stabilization. Analysts at J.P. Morgan project an average price of around $81 for the full year. This forecast does not necessarily signal a return to the previous rally, but rather points to potential market stabilization if the current consolidation phase runs its course.

@ boerse-global.de | XC0009653103 THIN