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Atradius expects 26% spike in insolvencies

01.09.2020 - 12:51:39

Atradius expects 26% spike in insolvencies. Atradius N.V. Netherlands France Austria Belgium Germany Italy Spain Switzerland United Kingdom

Atradius expects 26% spike in insolvencies

Atradius Chief Economist John Lorié commented, "Government measures have reduced the anticipated increase in bankruptcy filings in a range of ways. They have either shifted the threshold for filing, reduced debtor's ability to force bankruptcy, or provided sufficient financial support to delay filings. However as the support programs begin to expire, the number of filings should climb rapidly."

Southern Europe economies are experiencing a bigger coronavirus impact than Northern Europe. Southern European economies such as Spain, Italy, France, Portugal and Greece typically rely more heavily on tourism. Germany, Denmark, Austria and the Netherlands are less dependent on tourism and have fared better in containing new infections, with their economies seeming to adapt better to social distancing restrictions. In Germany, the forecast of a particularly small rise in insolvencies reflects the low correlation between GDP and insolvencies as well as (along with Switzerland) less stringent lockdown measures. The UK is expected to experience the largest GDP contraction in Europe following a more stringent lockdown and Brexit uncertainty.

The US, Japan and Australia have more positive GDP outlooks than most European countries. However, the US, along with Hong Kong and Turkey, is expected to experience one of the largest insolvency increases. Japan's early lifting of restrictions put pressure on economic growth which may raise insolvency risks. And while Australia has been a model example for containment, its tourism industry may experience a latent impact causing a bigger increase in 2021 insolvencies.

About Atradius

Atradius is a global provider of credit insurance, surety and collections services, with a strategic presence in over 50 countries. The credit insurance, bond and collection products offered by Atradius protect companies around the world against the default risks associated with selling goods and services on credit. Atradius is a member of Grupo Catalana Occidente (GCO.MC), one of the largest insurers in Spain and one of the largest credit insurers in the world. You can find more information online at https://group.atradius.com

For further information:

Atradius Corporate Communications
Christine Gerryn
Tel.: +31 20 553 2047
E-mail: christine.gerryn@atradius.com

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