Siemens Energy at a Crossroads: Deutsche Bank Defies Skeptics as Dividend Looms Large

Despite gas-turbine order peak fears, Deutsche Bank reaffirms buy on Siemens Energy (€200 target) on aftermarket and grid modernization growth. Q2 EPS doubled to €0.89, orders hit record €17.7B.

Growing unease that gas-turbine orders have peaked hasn't shaken Deutsche Bank’s conviction in Siemens Energy. Analyst Gael de-Bray has reaffirmed his buy rating and €200 price target, arguing the market is overlooking two structural growth engines that will power the stock well beyond the current cycle.

Skeptics point to a possible plateau in gas-plant bookings, but de-Bray sees a different story taking shape. Aftermarket revenue from replacement parts and services is set to become a much larger contributor after 2030, riding the inevitable expansion of the installed fleet. Simultaneously, the global grid-modernisation boom — a segment with persistently high demand — provides a second, independent tailwind.

The energy-technology group’s latest quarterly numbers offer ammunition for the bulls. In its fiscal second quarter, earnings per share nearly doubled to €0.89 from €0.50 a year earlier, while revenue ticked up to €10.29 billion. More tellingly, the order intake hit an all-time high of €17.7 billion. The share price has climbed roughly 42% since January, though it currently sits at €174.22 — about 7% below the 52-week peak of €188.00 reached in late April.

That earnings momentum is feeding directly into dividend expectations. After paying €0.70 per share for fiscal 2025, the consensus among analysts points to a payout of €1.84 for the current year, more than doubling the distribution. Strong utilisation in the grid-technology unit and stabilising margins at the troubled wind-turbine subsidiary Gamesa underpin the forecast.

Chief executive Christian Bruch raised the full-year outlook in April, citing brisk market dynamics despite geopolitical headwinds. Execution now centres on project delivery and service profitability. For the longer haul, the company is targeting an operating margin of 18% to 20% by 2030 — a goal de-Bray interprets as evidence of a genuine operational turnaround, particularly in the wind division.

A further catalyst may emerge in November, when Siemens Energy could announce an enlargement of its ongoing share buyback programme. Such a move would reinforce the message that management is shifting toward more generous capital returns.

Not everyone is equally convinced. Price targets among analysts span a wide range: CLSA sees fair value at €250, Goldman Sachs at €212, and Deutsche Bank at €200, while Barclays remains bearish with a €110 target. The current share price stands comfortably above the 200-day moving average of €131.40, underscoring the extent of the rally.

The next major test arrives on 5 August 2026, when Siemens Energy reports third-quarter results. Investors will be watching closely whether the record order book can be converted into sustainable margins — and whether the ambitious dividend consensus is built on solid ground.